Veteran trader Peter Brandt has offered a far more cautious outlook for Bitcoin than many well-known names in industry. In a post on X on Thursday, he said he doubts the token will reach $200,000 by the end of the year.
Brandt noted that he still supports Bitcoin’s long-term potential, yet he believes the climb toward $200,000 may take nearly four more years. He placed that target to around the third quarter of 2029.
He added that while he expects growth over time, the current cycle does not appear strong enough to deliver the figures that others have been predicting during recent months.
Contrast With Other Industry Leaders
Brandt’s outlook is different from high-profile figures such as Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee, both of whom have repeatedly argued that $200,000 could be reached this year. Their stance remained unchanged even through market turbulence in October.
His timeline also differs sharply from Coinbase chief Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood. Both foresee $1 million per Bitcoin by 2030, just a few months beyond Brandt’s own target date. Under Brandt’s scenario, the token would still trade at a level several times lower at that point.
Current Market Performance and Brandt's Analysis
Bitcoin’s performance in recent weeks underscores the debate. After setting a fresh record high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, the price has mostly trended downward. It dropped to $88,000 on Wednesday and slid further to around $86,870 at the time of publication.
Despite the downturn, Brandt argued that the current retreat is a healthy stage of the cycle. He described the sell-off as a needed cooldown that can remove excess heat from the market. Other analysts have also noted that past cycles often experienced similar phases before stronger rallies later on.
A Historical Parallel to the 1970s
Brandt recently compared today’s Bitcoin chart to the soybean market of the early 1970s. At that time, soybean prices reached a peak before falling roughly 50% once global supply outpaced demand.
He suggested that Bitcoin might be following a loosely similar path, though driven by very different forces.
Meanwhile, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated that Bitcoin is facing one of the heaviest waves of institutional selling ever recorded.