Bitcoin continued to show weakness as its long-standing four-year parabola curve finally cracked. At press time, BTC traded near 86000 dollars with market dominance at 58 percent, pushing its total valuation below 2 trillion dollars. Despite bearish pressure, veteran analyst and Market Wizard author Peter Brandt believes the next bull cycle may still reach the 200000 to 250000 dollar range.
Cycle Multiples Show Shrinking Yet Predictable Patterns
Brandt noted that Bitcoin has consistently followed a historical pattern where each four-year cycle hits a new all-time high, followed by retracement phases exceeding 75 percent. According to him, traders must accept the cyclical decay that Bitcoin has shown and its repeated alignment with long-term patterns.
He warned that Bitcoin could continue falling in the short term, as low as 50000 dollars. However, he highlighted that if BTC revisits this level, the reaction could be explosive and may fuel the next major bull market.
Brandt stated, "Agree with it or not, you will have to deal with it. Should the current decline carry to 50k, the next bull market cycle should carry to 200k to 250k."
Since Bitcoin’s inception, at least five similar parabolic cycle breaks have played out, each shaping long-term market direction.
Bear Trend Weakens as Miners Capitulate
The recent break of the parabola curve hinted at extended bear conditions. Yet, several indicators suggest that bearish strength is weakening. The ADX, a tool used to measure trend strength, has been dropping, signaling the bear trend is losing momentum.
On-chain activity highlighted miners capitulating. A miner’s wallet recently moved 50 BTC earned more than 15 years ago, worth 4.33 million dollars. Such movements often coincide with cycle bottoms and major trend shifts.
Brandt had previously warned that losing the parabola curve would deepen bear market conditions. This miner activity aligns with signals seen during prior cycle resets.
Bitcoin Discussions Surge on Social Platforms
Despite the price drop, social chatter around Bitcoin has surged. Data from Santiment showed rising discussions on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, Tether, Dent, Chainlink, and Polkadot. Historically, increased discourse during market downturns often correlates with capitulation phases and long term accumulation opportunities.
Short Term Outlook Suggests Support Near 80000 Dollars
Technically, BTC is forming support near 80000 dollars. A failure to hold this area could open the path toward 50000 dollars, completing the bearish scenario described by Brandt. A breakdown below 75000 dollars strengthens bearish odds.
However, traders view this discount zone as an attractive long opportunity. If Bitcoin manages to stabilize above 80000 dollars and reclaim momentum, the probability of a long term bullish reversal remains intact.
While threats of a deeper drop exist, the long term analysis still supports the possibility of Bitcoin reaching 200000 to 250000 dollars in the next cycle.