Millions Wager on Trump’s Next Pardons
Prediction market traders are betting that Sam Bankman-Fried could receive a pardon from Donald Trump this year after the U.S. president granted clemency to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao yesterday.
Over $6.6 million has been wagered on Trump’s potential 2025 pardons, with around $356,045 placed on Bankman-Fried’s outcome. Another related market tracking whether he will be released from custody in 2025 climbed is at 10%. The sharp jump reflects the optimism among bettors who believe Trump might extend the same favor to the disgraced crypto mogul.
Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year sentence for fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. He was convicted of misusing billions of dollars in customer funds through his collapsed exchange, FTX. His legal team has filed an appeal to reduce the sentence, but experts say there may not be any progress before the end of the year. This means a presidential pardon could be his only route to freedom before January.
Experts Doubt SBF Will Be Pardoned
The debate over whether Bankman-Fried deserves such treatment has split opinions across the crypto industry. Many point to the wide gap between CZ’s four-month sentence and Bankman-Fried’s 25 years. While CZ was found guilty of violating U.S. anti-money-laundering laws, he wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers.
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he would be shocked if Trump pardoned Bankman-Fried, and noted that the former FTX boss was a “Democratic mega-donor before FTX suddenly collapsed in November 2022.”
Trump defended his decision to pardon CZ, saying he was told the Binance founder’s actions were “not even a crime” and that he was “persecuted by the Biden administration.”