Portugal is restricting access to Polymarket just days after the platform saw peak trading volumes on its presidential elections. This marks another instance where the platform faces restrictions in a territory due to high-profile trading activity.
Polymarket will be restricted in the Portuguese market, potentially leading local users to seek workarounds. The country’s gambling regulator did not accept the argument that Polymarket functions as a trading platform.
Instead, the national regulator issued a demand for Polymarket to cease all operations within 48 hours. This action is reminiscent of France's decision to limit the platform after a prominent user, known for accurate predictions on the US Presidential elections in 2024, gained notoriety.
Prior to Portugal, Ukraine and Romania also restricted Polymarket. The latest development underscores that prediction platforms continue to be subjects of scrutiny and are often equated to gambling.
The restriction arrived shortly after the first round of Portugal’s presidential elections, which identified António José Seguro and André Ventura as the candidates in what is shaping up to be a potentially polarizing election.
Polymarket Restricted After Presidential Elections
Similar to the situation in France, Portugal reacted to Polymarket just as the platform was gaining traction within the country. The high-volume prediction market for Portugal’s presidential elections triggered the regulator’s response.
Polymarket has been met with skepticism, partly due to its information's widespread popularity on social media. Some believe that this exposure to election predictions could influence the electoral process, suggesting its effect is not neutral.
The local regulator stated that Polymarket lacked a gambling license, and the state also expressed a desire to ban political betting.
Beyond its monetary value, Polymarket serves as a real-time gauge of sentiment. The platform's political markets are among its most active and liquid, attracting both speculation and serious analysis. Market participants and social media users gain a real-time preview of candidate appeal, which may paradoxically further influence election outcomes.
Polymarket Continues to Offer Predictions on the Second Round of Portugal’s Elections
Polymarket remains under close observation as new prediction markets have emerged for the second round of the elections, scheduled for February 8.
The current market predicting the winner has already surpassed $121 million in trading volumes, with António José Seguro identified as the probable winner. Market activity is accelerating, even as Polymarket may discontinue access for local traders.
According to local media reports, the regulator intensified its scrutiny as Polymarket traded $4 million in positions just before the first round of the election results was announced.
“The website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal, and under national law, betting on political events or happenings, whether national or international, is not permitted,” announced the local regulator SRIJ.
The regulator stated that it only recently became aware of Polymarket’s activities. Concerns were raised regarding potential insider trading and the utilization of exit poll information.
Polymarket was still operational in Portugal on Monday, and the site could be accessed through wallets or other tools. However, Portugal's move highlights the increasing scrutiny faced by such platforms, particularly as they had become more confident that their activities were not classified as gambling.