The prediction market Polymarket has seen a notable shift in bets regarding Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) legal status. As of now, there’s a 15% chance priced in that SBF could be released from custody at some point in 2025. This jump suggests a renewed wave of speculation, possibly driven by legal appeals, upcoming hearings, or political sentiment shifts around his case.
Polymarket, known for tracking everything from elections to celebrity trials, offers a decentralized way for users to bet on real-world events. These odds don’t guarantee outcomes but reflect collective sentiment — often a step ahead of mainstream narratives.
Why the Odds May Be Moving
SBF, the former CEO of the now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, is currently serving a 25-year federal prison sentence following his conviction on fraud and conspiracy charges. However, his legal team has signaled plans to appeal the verdict.
Legal analysts speculate that any successful appeal or procedural error found during the trial could lead to a reduced sentence, retrial, or potential release under certain conditions. Such developments would directly impact the Polymarket odds.
Another factor may be the broader political climate. With the U.S. elections approaching and ongoing debates around crypto regulation and enforcement, there’s always a small chance of unexpected moves, including presidential pardons or legal leniency.
NOW: Polymarket odds of SBF being released from custody in 2025 jump to 15%. pic.twitter.com/YwFhRXAtSl
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) October 24, 2025
Crypto Community Remains Divided
While some in the crypto space believe SBF deserves a second chance, others view the current 15% release odds as overly optimistic. For now, the 15% figure simply shows that while the majority believe he’ll remain in prison through 2025, a growing number are betting on a legal twist.
As always, prediction markets reflect expectations, not certainties — but they’re a powerful window into what traders think could happen next.