A surge in bets on Polymarket, the crypto prediction platform, now pegs the probability of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in October at 95 %, up from prior estimates near 90 %.
The platform’s “Fed decision in October” market currently assigns:
- •90 % chance to a 25 basis-point reduction
- •8 % probability of “no change”
- •3–4 % odds of a larger cut (50+ bps)
The dramatic increase in cut expectations comes amid cooling inflation data and signs of labor market softening, which many believe give the Fed room to ease policy.
Yet, voices within the Fed remain cautious. Some regional Fed presidents have stressed the need to maintain a restrictive stance until inflation is more firmly in check, warning that premature easing could risk undermining price stability.
If the Fed delivers as markets expect, it would mark another pivot toward monetary easing this year — with ripple effects likely across equities, fixed income, and the crypto sphere.