Polymarket has achieved its most successful week to date, surpassing the trading volumes recorded during the 2024 US election season. This surge is attributed to a renewed inflow of retail traders and the increasing use of automated bot orders on the platform.
The prediction market platform continues to lead its competitors. In the past week, Polymarket's prediction pair trading volumes reached an all-time high, breaking the previous record set during the 2024 US elections.
Despite its ongoing closed beta with limited onboarding passes for the US market, Polymarket has seen significant growth. The platform's popularity has been driven by increased activity in sports and current events predictions, as well as short-term cryptocurrency price predictions, which have collectively boosted traffic and trading volumes.
According to data from Artemis, Polymarket's weekly spot volumes have exceeded $1.25 billion. This substantial increase reflects a combination of new retail trader participation, the introduction of short-term settlement markets, and the growing adoption of automated trading strategies.
Following three months of consistent growth and the introduction of diverse pair offerings, Polymarket has demonstrated its sustained activity and potential for further expansion, even in the face of increasing competition. The platform has reported higher site visits than established platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, and has now moved ahead of Kalshi, after maintaining a near-tie in previous months.
However, open interest on Polymarket remains lower than its peak during the largest bet in the platform's history. This suggests a continued shift towards smaller-scale predictions, while the US Presidential Elections still represent the highest point of open interest, attracting both international traders and significantly larger stakes.
Polymarket Attracts Volumes from Other Exchanges
In November, Polymarket emerged as the most visited cryptocurrency-related site, ranking just behind major platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase. The prediction platform recorded 19.9 million visits in October, as shared by its founder, Shayne Coplan.
For cryptocurrency enthusiasts, prediction markets are increasingly becoming a preferred alternative to other forms of trading. This shift is driven by the appeal of quick settlements and the perception of a fairer trading environment.
In recent weeks, trading volumes have demonstrably moved from centralized exchanges to prediction platforms. This trend has resulted in the ratio of prediction market volume to spot exchange activity reaching 0.58%. While prediction markets are still relatively small in comparison, they are successfully drawing traders away from other slowing sectors, including perpetual futures, meme coin trading, decentralized exchange activity, and other established markets.
Bot Trading Contributes to Volume Growth
A portion of Polymarket's recent volume surge can be attributed to the influx of automated trading. On-chain analysis has identified several accounts exhibiting characteristics of automation.
Some of these automated trading bots have achieved notable success, maintaining long winning streaks by strategically betting on niche markets and consistently taking profits. Other users are leveraging bots to gain rapid insights into market resolutions, purchasing positions shortly before markets are settled.
Currently, bots on Polymarket tend to focus on the most liquid prediction pairs. In contrast, individual traders are often exploring less popular markets with lower activity levels.
It is important to note that copy-trading bots can present increased risks, and some links purporting to offer access to copy-trading prominent Polymarket bots may be malicious.