Traders Speculate on Federal Reserve Chair Appointment
Crypto traders on Polymarket are betting that U.S. President Donald Trump will not announce the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas. According to data from Polymarket, there is a 45% chance that Trump won’t name a Fed Chair before the year-end. If he does, traders predict a 28% chance that Kevin Hassett will be chosen, a 9% chance for Christopher Waller, and an 8% chance for Rick Rieder.
This surge in betting activity follows news that Trump is looking to replace Jerome Powell and may announce his choice for the next chair before Christmas.
Trump's Candidate Pool for Federal Reserve Chair
In an interview with Fox News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the process is underway in Washington, with Trump meeting candidates to finalize his decision. Bessent stated, "We’re doing another round of interviews. Then some people in the White House will be doing interviews, probably right after Thanksgiving." He added that Trump hopes to have an answer before Christmas.
The five final contenders for the position are current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder.
Trump praised the candidates but did not name a clear favorite. Speaking from the Oval Office, he commented, "I think I already know my choice. I’d love to get the guy currently in there out right now, but people are holding me back," referring to Jerome Powell. He also mentioned, "We have some surprising names and some standard names that everybody’s talking about."
Bessent also confirmed he will not be considered for the role. Trump had hoped Bessent might accept the job, but the Treasury Secretary prefers to remain in his current post. Bessent stated he could "safely say" he will not be the pick.
Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate among the five. He has indicated his willingness to take the role if offered and favors larger interest rate cuts, while expecting the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points at the December FOMC meeting.
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair concludes in May of next year, though his tenure as a governor continues until 2028. The new chair will assume a 14-year Fed governor term beginning February 1, a position currently held by Stephen Miran, who is on unpaid leave from the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
The next Federal Reserve Chair will face the challenge of balancing Trump’s desire for lower interest rates with the necessity of maintaining market confidence.
Donald Trump's Ongoing Disagreement with Jerome Powell
Donald Trump has expressed intentions to remove Jerome Powell from his position even before taking office, marking this as one of the most significant political tensions in U.S. economic leadership. Trump had previously claimed he would fire the Fed chair multiple times, but cited "people are holding me back," clearly indicating his deep frustration with the Fed chair’s reluctance to cut interest rates.
At one point, Trump referred to Powell as "a fool" and "a stupid man," despite being the individual who appointed him in 2017. Federal law provides protection for Powell against being fired without serious cause, which has prevented Trump from acting on his threats, but has not deterred him from repeating them.
The disagreement recently became public when Trump incorrectly claimed the Fed’s renovation cost had surged to $3.1 billion, and Powell corrected him on the spot, highlighting their strained relationship. Despite these moments of friction, Trump has stated his intention to replace Powell when his current term concludes.