Betting Boom Sparks Crackdown
Over €4 million was poured into presidential election markets right before results dropped, amid suspicions of insider trading from leaked exit polls, with total volume surpassing €110 million. This echoes France, Belgium, and Poland’s prior bans, as governments chase decentralized platforms that are hard to police.
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to trade shares on event outcomes, offering yes or no bets settled in USDC stablecoin, often pricing news faster than traditional polls. The SRIJ views the unlicensed platform as straight gambling, which is illegal under Portugal’s 2015 laws that bar political wagers and limit approved bets to sports or casino games. Hours before polls closed, odds swung wildly: Socialist candidate António José Seguro’s win probability jumped from 60% to 95%, while rivals tanked. This movement mirrored private exit poll leaks accessed by journalists around 6 p.m. Regulators issued a 48-hour shutdown notice on Friday, but as of Monday, the site remained accessible, prompting potential ISP blocks.
The clash fits into a broader pushback against such platforms. Prediction markets collectively hit $6 billion in weekly volume last week, led by Kalshi ($2.15B), OpinionLabs ($1.94B), and Polymarket ($1.76B). Portugal joins over 30 countries that have restricted these markets, amidst ongoing U.S. probes into election bets. A notable example occurred during the 2024 U.S. elections, where users wagered billions on election odds, with Polymarket accurately predicting Donald Trump’s chances better than traditional Las Vegas bookmakers.
🚨BREAKING: 🇵🇹Portugal orders closure of Polymarket.
Regulators say prediction markets tied to political events violate national gambling laws.
Polymarket was given 48 hours to shut down operations. pic.twitter.com/LDsNnXhNRo
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) January 20, 2026
Credible data from Dune Analytics shows Polymarket's 2025 fees exceeding $100 million. However, regulatory scrutiny poses a risk to user funds, as the SRIJ warns that there are no recovery guarantees for unlicensed plays.
More About Polymarket
DAZN is collaborating with Polymarket to integrate real-time prediction probabilities into its live sports broadcasts, intending to transform the fan experience. This partnership will overlay crowd-sourced betting odds directly onto live streams, highlighting momentum shifts, trends, and likely outcomes as events unfold. All of this will be accessible within DAZN’s unified app, which already combines live sports, scores, news, FanZone chats, and regulated betting. The prediction probabilities are derived from markets where users trade shares on yes/no events, such as “will this team score next?” The price of these shares reflects collective confidence and is updated instantly for viewers. Pending CFTC licenses, U.S. users will soon be able to trade these predictions within the app, expanding DAZN's offerings beyond passive viewing into active speculation.
DAZN is expanding what it means to experience sport.
We’ve partnered with @Polymarket to bring a powerful new real‑time layer to the DAZN ecosystem.
From live & on‑demand sport to scores, news, FanZone and betting in regulated markets, DAZN already unifies the best of sport in… pic.twitter.com/unE4pKyR4Y
— DAZN (@dazngroup) January 20, 2026
Imagine tuning into a tense soccer match: as your striker breaks free, on-screen odds flash a 72% chance of a goal, reflecting thousands betting live, thereby intensifying the thrill without viewers needing to leave the stream. This development builds upon the surge in prediction markets, where platforms like Polymarket achieved $6 billion in weekly volumes last week, blending blockchain speed with sports fandom to rival traditional bookies. For broadcasters, this translates to more engaged viewers; for fans, it offers data-driven excitement that feels personal. DAZN’s strategic move signifies the sports media industry’s pursuit of DeFi's advantages, aiming to transform broadcasts into interactive arenas where insights flow more freely than refreshments at halftime.