Bitcoin (BTC) may remain below the $100,000 threshold for the remainder of 2025, with market sentiment showing weakness following the US Federal Reserve's recent rate cut decision.
Key indicators suggest a subdued outlook:
- •Prediction markets assign only a 30% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before January 1, 2026.
- •The pace of Bitcoin treasury buying has significantly decelerated, impacting short-term recovery efforts.
- •Bitcoin faces immediate resistance around the $94,000 level, though an ascending triangle breakout could push it towards the $98,000 liquidity zone.
Limited Chance for $100,000 Reclaim Before Year's End
The majority of traders on prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi anticipate Bitcoin will stay under the $100,000 mark for the coming weeks.
As of December 11, Kalshi bettors are assigning approximately 34% odds that BTC will cross $100,000 before December 31. Polymarket similarly sets the odds at 29% for BTC reaching $100,000 before the end of 2025.
Bitcoin's December high stands at $94,600, achieved on Tuesday. The last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on November 13.
Several factors have contributed to capping Bitcoin's recent rebound attempts. These include growing macroeconomic uncertainties and a notable slowdown in Bitcoin treasury purchases by corporations.
Data indicates that the daily rate at which companies are acquiring Bitcoin has been declining, suggesting a potential exhaustion of institutional buying interest.
Despite the reduced demand from corporate treasuries, Polymarket odds for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin in 2025 remain marginal before the year's end. However, expectations for routine, smaller purchases by the company continue to be elevated.
Furthermore, Polymarket traders still view routine MicroStrategy purchases this week as a high-probability event, with a 65% chance of the company buying over 1,000 BTC between December 9 and 15.
Last week, MicroStrategy expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 660,624 BTC after acquiring an additional 10,624 coins for approximately $962.7 million. The company is currently on track to match its Bitcoin purchase volume from the previous year.
Potential Upside Capped Around $98,000
Market data indicates that the BTC/USD pair has been consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern on lower time frames.
The price is currently pushing against resistance again, specifically within the supply zone between the yearly open at $93,300 and $94,000, according to analyst Daan Crypto Trades.
A confirmed break and hold above $94,000 could potentially lead to a move towards the triangle's measured target of around $108,000. However, Daan Crypto Trades suggests that the upside might be limited to retesting the previous support area near $98,000.
"This is also where a good amount of liquidity is located."
For buyers to drive Bitcoin above $94,589 and open the possibility of retesting the $98,000-$100,000 zone, significant upward momentum would be required.