Key Highlights
- •Prediction market trading reached a record $701.7 million, with Kalshi leading the volume.
- •Crypto exchanges and wallets are increasing adoption through integrations.
- •Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying both in the US and internationally.
Record Trading Volumes Amidst Regulatory Pressure
Prediction markets surged to a new all-time high in early 2026, shrugging off mounting regulatory pressure in the United States. Total trading volume hit $701.7 million on Tuesday, setting a fresh record despite ongoing efforts by lawmakers and regulators to curb the fast-growing sector.
Data from Dune Analytics via Gate Research shows that Kalshi dominated activity, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total volume at $465.9 million. Rival platforms Polymarket and Opinion collectively recorded around $100 million in trades.
The latest figure surpassed the previous record of $666.6 million, set just one day earlier, underscoring the rapid pace of adoption. Prediction markets have emerged as one of crypto’s most popular use cases, with growth accelerating sharply since August.
Major crypto firms are helping fuel the momentum. Exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini have either launched or announced plans to integrate prediction markets, while self-custody wallets like MetaMask are rolling out similar features. The surge in activity has also caught Wall Street’s attention, pushing leading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket into multibillion-dollar valuation territory.
Regulatory Heat Intensifies Amid Insider Trading Concerns
The renewed spotlight on prediction markets comes after a controversial incident earlier this month involving Polymarket. An anonymous user reportedly wagered about $30,000 on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before his capture, a bet that paid out more than $400,000 and raised fears of insider information.
In the US, lawmakers in New York are preparing to review legislation that would restrict or ban certain prediction markets tied to politics, sports, and financial assets. Other states, including Connecticut, Nevada, and New Jersey, have already attempted to limit prediction market activity, prompting legal pushback from operators.
Kalshi scored a temporary legal win on Monday after a Tennessee federal judge blocked state regulators from enforcing an order that would have forced the platform to stop offering sports-related contracts.
Regulatory pressure is not limited to the US. In Europe, Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket in December, classifying prediction markets as a form of gambling under local law.