A rough stretch unfolded across crypto, and Pudgy Penguins has been caught inside that storm. A sharp downtrend has shaped the PENGU price since October, and the drop now sits at more than 60%. A deeper problem sits underneath the chart, according to an analyst from Bearhard Bitcoin Strategy.
A simple glance at the structure shows weakness, yet the larger picture reveals why the next move could deliver far more pressure. The analyst’s breakdown gives a clearer view.
A comparison between the Pudgy Penguins token and the rest of the altcoin space sets the tone. A relative valuation model shared by the analyst shows PENGU losing ground against the wider altcoin market since July. The underperformance currently sits at 68%.
A decline of this size suggests more than a soft market. A structural weakness shows up when an asset consistently trails similar tokens across multiple months. This is why the analyst keeps returning to the broader underperformance as a clue that the downtrend is not simply a reaction to weak sentiment.
PENGU Token Correlation With Solana Deepens The Slide
The analyst mentions that the relationship between PENGU and Solana creates another layer of pressure. He explains that swaps on decentralized exchanges connect both assets through shared liquidity pools. A decline of 10% on Solana automatically pulls PENGU lower even without active trading.
A second comparison chart from the analyst shows PENGU falling 66% against Solana itself. This ratio has not found a stable floor. A possible bounce might appear after another drop of about 24%, although the chart also leaves space for a much deeper fall of about 57% before reaching earlier extremes.
This structure gives weight to the argument that PENGU is not only weak in dollar terms. The token is also losing strength against the chain that supports it.
Pudgy Penguins Price Pressure Grows Through Token Supply
A rising circulating supply forms another layer of concern. Many meme tokens lock supply or burn supply. PENGU moves in the opposite direction.
Supply held by the team sits at 18% of the total. Liquidity pools add more. Company reserves add even more. The analyst expects fresh unlocks soon and that creates steady selling pressure over time.
A weak market can recover when demand surprises. A weak market combined with rising supply rarely recovers comfortably.
PENGU Token Holder Activity Signals Weak Conviction
On-chain data provides a window into confidence. Over half a million wallets hold some PENGU on Solana. That number once grew rapidly but now moves lower.
A detailed wallet breakdown shows outflows across all groups. Wallets with 100,000 PENGU lower positions. Wallets with 1 million lower positions. Wallets with 10 million lower positions.
Retail wallets lighten their bags. Larger wallets lighten their bags. The analyst frames this behavior as a key sign that conviction is fading across every tier of the holder base.
Pudgy Penguins Price Faces Faster Selling Than Other Solana Meme Tokens
A chart comparing Solana meme tokens gives another reason for caution. PENGU sits near the top of the list for fastest sell-offs in the past 7 days based on the analyst’s data.
A rough environment exists across Solana’s meme landscape, although PENGU has taken heavier damage than most. A token rarely outperforms after lagging peers repeatedly in short and medium time frames.
PENGU Token Market Structure Suggests More Downside
Market cap numbers show how far the token has travelled. A peak slightly above 2.5 billion sits far behind the current level near 640 million. A prior floor formed around 250 million and that corresponds closely with the analyst’s earlier 50% underperformance zone.
According to the analyst, other Solana meme tokens such as Bonk and Dog with Hat reached similar caps before their pullbacks. This cluster near 4 billion for most meme tokens forms a glass ceiling. PENGU hit a similar ceiling and then followed a typical pattern of unwinding.
Leverage Signals Weaker Momentum For Pudgy Penguins Price
Spot markets provide one view while perpetual markets provide another. The analyst highlights that most PENGU trading volume shows up on perpetuals. A large flash crash on October 10 wiped out a heavy amount of long positions.
Funding turned negative, and liquidations surged to almost 50 million in a single day. PENGU fell more than 81% during that event while broader altcoins dropped 28%.
Open interest collapsed from earlier highs to about 72 million. A previous bottom near 29 million suggests more room on the downside if this trend continues. Spot price often trails open interest, and the analyst warns that the lag effect might not be finished.
PENGU Token Momentum Still Points Lower
A combination of falling open interest, falling holder numbers, falling relative performance, and rising supply creates a challenging structure. Current momentum remains negative, and the analyst does not see signs of speculative inflows returning yet.
A possible move toward half a cent emerges from earlier liquidation zones. A potential 55% drop toward that region sits as the mid-range outlook from the analyst.
A small bounce remains possible against Solana if volatility shifts. A larger bounce could appear if PENGU touches the upper band of its trading range. That type of move may offer setups for traders although it carries risk.
A cycle of fear continues to dictate behavior across many altcoins and PENGU suffers more than most. The commentator stresses that the token’s structure suffers from too many headwinds at once. Rising supply, falling demand, weak momentum, and heavy ties to Solana create a challenging mix.
A viewer looking for a clear answer to the title question now sees the picture more clearly. Weak structure supports the idea that the next leg down could be painful unless something shifts in the broader market.
A steep decline can sometimes create an opportunity. A steep decline can also signal a deeper structural problem. PENGU sits at that crossroads right now. The analyst’s view helps show the mechanics behind the drop so readers can judge the situation with better context.