Pundit to Bitcoin and Crypto Holders: Have We Seen the Worst Yet? Details

Many investors are questioning whether the recent crypto market volatility marks the end of the downward trend or if further declines are still coming.

In a recent video, crypto commentator Austin Hilton examined current market conditions and outlined the factors shaping both optimism and caution among analysts.

His remarks provided a detailed overview of price levels, sentiment indicators, policy developments, and on-chain trends that continue to influence Bitcoin and the broader market.

Bitcoin’s Recent Movements and Current Position

Hilton began by addressing the central question circulating among market participants: whether the bottom has already formed. He pointed to Bitcoin’s recent fluctuation between approximately $83,000 and $86,000, noting that the asset briefly dropped to around $83,000 before recovering.

He explained that while he is not aiming to determine the exact timing of a market bottom, he does recognize the possibility of limited additional downside.

Some analysts he follows believe that if negative sentiment intensifies, Bitcoin could fall toward the $74,000 to $75,000 range. Despite this, he said that consensus across various researchers he monitors indicates that the market is close to its lowest point.

Sentiment Shifts and Market Indicators

Hilton highlighted signs of improving sentiment, even though major indicators still caution. He referenced a Fear and Greed Index reading of 15, up from 12 the previous day, noting that the market remains in an extreme fear phase but is showing early improvement.

He attributed part of the sentiment shift to expectations that the Federal Reserve may introduce an interest rate reduction in the coming weeks, with an 82% probability of such a move. According to Hilton, this expectation is contributing to more constructive conditions across both crypto and equity markets.

He also pointed to on-chain data indicating that large Bitcoin holders have begun accumulating again, a trend that often precedes upward movement. Additionally, he emphasized the importance of pending pro-crypto legislation, specifically the Clarity Act, which he expects to advance once congressional delays tied to the government shutdown are resolved.

Remaining Risks and Further Considerations

Hilton acknowledged that uncertainty still exists. Macroeconomic concerns, lingering fear among investors, and questions about the relevance of the traditional four-year market cycle all contribute to a cautious environment. He reiterated that sentiment does not reverse quickly and that weakened demand remains visible, though it may gradually improve.

He also discussed the Federal Reserve’s decision to end quantitative tightening in early December, a development he believes will increase liquidity and support markets. Despite these positive signals, Hilton maintained that some volatility may continue, and a slight downward move remains possible.

Hilton concluded that although conflicting signals persist, the prevailing view among the analysts he engages with, combined with his own research, suggests that the worst phase of the downturn is likely behind the market.

While acknowledging uncertainty, he stated that conditions are aligning in a way that indicates the market is near a turning point, with the potential for recovery gradually strengthening.