XRP may be on the verge of a significant supply crunch, according to new commentary from TheXRPguy, an XRP community voice. The analyst points to a rapidly shrinking pool of XRP available on public exchanges, combined with massive potential institutional inflows, as the setup for what he calls a looming “supply shock.”
According to him, only 3.8 billion XRP currently sits on centralized exchanges, representing the liquid supply available for trading. With new institutional products emerging and demand surging, analysts argue that this number could quickly become insufficient.
Rising Demand Indicators: XRPC Volume and ETF Filings
TheXRPguy also highlighted growing momentum behind XRP-related investment vehicles. The Canary Capital XRPC ETF recorded $58 million in trading volume on its first day of launch, with expectations that it may reach $1 billion within a month if growth continues.
At the same time, there are reportedly 11 pending ETF applications for XRP in the U.S. market. While approval timelines approach, analysts say even a modest capital inflow into these funds could put enormous pressure on XRP’s already thin exchange reserves.
XRP is facing a supply shock.
— TheXRPguy (@TheXRP_guy) November 13, 2025
There is only $3.8 billion on exchanges. $XRPC did $58 million and will probably hit $1 billion in a month.
There are 11 ETFs pending right now for XRP.
If they all pull $1 billion, we are in for a huge supply shock and price appreciation.
“If they all pull $1 billion, we are in for a huge supply shock and price appreciation,” TheXRPguy stated.
It Doesn’t Take Much for the Market to Tighten Fast
Adding weight to the discussion, Jordan Belfort, a known crypto investor, shared a similar assessment, emphasizing the simple mechanics of liquidity.
“The math really does speak for itself,” Belfort wrote. “With only 3.8 billion in liquid exchange supply and ETFs plus institutional rails pulling billions, it doesn’t take much for the market to tighten fast.”
He added that XRP’s float is “thin compared to its demand potential” and that even a fraction of the pending ETF applications becoming active could create a meaningful squeeze.
Analysts: ETF Demand Could Outpace Available XRP
The arrival of ETF products, paired with banks and financial institutions increasing on-chain settlement activity, could magnify demand for XRP beyond what is currently available for purchase. Market analysts say that when demand from passive investment products collides with limited supply, the result is typically aggressive upward price pressure.
As liquidity providers, retail traders, and institutions all compete for a relatively small pool of accessible XRP, a supply shock scenario remains possible, especially if ETF approvals come in rapid succession.
Outlook
While XRP has seen many speculative cycles, the current conversation centers on structural liquidity dynamics, not hype alone. If institutional demand materializes as analysts expect, XRP may be entering a period where supply constraints play a more influential role in its market behavior than ever before.