Traders on Polymarket have sharply increased their bets on a possible pardon for former FTX chief Sam Bankman-Fried, after President Donald Trump pardoned Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao earlier this week. Polymarket’s “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” contract saw Bankman-Fried’s odds rise from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours. More than $6.5 million has been wagered in that market, including over $300,000 staked specifically on SBF. A separate contract on whether he would be released from custody in 2025 jumped from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling near 15.5%. Bankman-Fried, who is serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud and conspiracy, has filed an appeal but is unlikely to see progress before year-end. A presidential pardon remains the only plausible route to early release before January.
Crypto Industry Split on Comparisons to CZ
The surge in betting odds followed a debate over whether Bankman-Fried’s crimes bear any comparison to Zhao’s. CZ was sentenced to four months in prison for violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws by failing to prevent illicit transactions on Binance. By contrast, SBF was convicted of misappropriating billions of dollars in customer assets through FTX and Alameda Research. “Four months versus 25 years isn’t remotely comparable,” said Sasha Hodder, founder of Hodder Law. “Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance operated as a functioning exchange. His violation was compliance-related, not criminal in the moral sense.” Zhao’s lenient treatment and subsequent pardon have nonetheless reignited discussion over selective enforcement in U.S. crypto regulation. Trump said this week that he had been told “what [CZ] did is not even a crime” and accused the prior administration of political persecution. Zhao is a reported backer of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto project.
Analysts Dismiss SBF Pardon Chances
Legal experts called the prospect of a pardon for Bankman-Fried far-fetched. “I’d be truly shocked if the Trump administration pardoned SBF,” said Jake Chervinsky, a U.S. crypto lawyer. “He was a Democratic mega-donor before FTX collapsed. His name is half punch line, half curse word in D.C. Not a single serious person wants this.” Bankman-Fried’s political record and the scale of his fraud have made him one of Washington’s least sympathetic figures. FTX’s implosion in late 2022 erased billions in investor assets and damaged public confidence in the broader digital-asset sector. Despite appeals, there is little legal precedent for a presidential pardon in such high-profile financial crimes, particularly when a lengthy sentence has only just begun.
Politics, Pardons, and Perception
Trump’s wave of crypto-related pardons has injected volatility into both digital asset markets and prediction platforms. Polymarket activity has surged since the president began granting clemency to industry figures, with bettors viewing each move as a barometer of the administration’s attitude toward crypto entrepreneurs. While CZ’s release reinforces Trump’s pro-crypto stance, the likelihood of Bankman-Fried sharing that outcome remains remote. As traders chase short-term odds, the broader industry continues to wrestle with the reputational fallout from FTX and questions over political favoritism in regulatory enforcement.