In brief
- •The United States is experiencing its first government shutdown since 2018, partially paralyzing the federal administration.
- •This budget deadlock immediately triggered a flow towards safe-haven assets, such as gold… and bitcoin.
- •Bitcoin recorded a 2.9 % rebound, reaching $117,288, despite a context of strong political instability.
- •Several altcoins show signs of stabilization, suggesting that a bottom may have been reached.
American political chaos drives safe-haven assets up
On October 1st, the United States officially entered its first government shutdown since 2018, as predicted by Kalshi and Polymarket traders.
This deadlock stems from the Congress’s inability to adopt a temporary budget resolution for the 2026 fiscal year. The Republicans’ proposal, lacking the adjustments requested by the Democrats, led to a deadlock.
The head of the Democratic majority in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, warned that millions of Americans risk losing their health coverage if no deal is reached. Consequently, the federal administration is partially paralyzed, a situation unprecedented in six years.
This context of political instability triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, particularly in assets perceived as safe havens. In this regard, several key indicators recorded significant movements :
- •Bitcoin (BTC) rose 2.9 % in 24 hours, reaching $117,288 ;
- •The price of gold increased by 0.7 %, signaling a shift of capital toward protective assets.
According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget : “bitcoin should also benefit from this shutdown, as its immunity to governmental and political uncertainties makes it attractive to traditional investors”.
This dynamic reflects a shift toward alternative assets in times of political uncertainty, strengthening bitcoin’s image as a safe haven amid institutional tensions.
Towards a floor for altcoins ?
Beyond bitcoin’s performance, some signals reveal a possible trend reversal across the entire crypto market, especially regarding altcoins.
According to Ryan Lee, “most promising altcoins appear to have reached their bottom”. While corrections remain possible, their current stabilization could herald a market recovery in the weeks to come.
Bitcoin crossing the $117,000 threshold is seen as a positive indicator for the entire ecosystem, especially as October historically proves favorable for the crypto market.
Past shutdowns have often been followed by a more flexible stance from the US Federal Reserve. As the Kobeissi Letter recalls, such episodes are historically associated with an average 13 % rise in the S&P 500 over the following year. This trend could indirectly benefit the crypto sector through monetary policy easing and a liquidity boost.
If American political uncertainty destabilizes institutions, it seems to offer the crypto market an unexpected breath of fresh air. Between renewed interest in safe-haven assets and hopes of monetary stimulus, this shutdown could sustainably embed itself in the current crypto cycle.