SOL Recovery at Risk Amidst Weak On-Chain Activity
Solana's (SOL) recent recovery attempt stalled at the $145 mark, coinciding with a significant development: Solana ETF flows turned negative for the first time since their launch. This marks a notable shift in institutional sentiment, potentially signaling a decline in demand.
As previously reported, spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) broke their streak of consistent net inflows, recording their first single-day net outflow of $8.2 million on Wednesday. This development reflects a possible decrease in institutional demand, occurring alongside waning network activity on the Solana blockchain.
Data from Nansen indicates a weakening in key network metrics. Over the last seven days, there has been a 6% decrease in active addresses and a 16% decline in network fees. These figures suggest a slowdown in user engagement and transaction volume on the network.
Furthermore, Solana's total value locked (TVL) has experienced a significant downturn. The TVL is down 20% month-to-date and has fallen 32% from its September high of $13.23 billion, currently standing at $9.1 billion as of November 11. This decline in locked value indicates a reduction in the total assets deployed within Solana's decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
Within Solana's DeFi landscape, Jito has been among the weakest performers in terms of deposit changes, with its TVL dropping 33% over the past 30 days. Other notable declines include Jupiter (-28%), Raydium (-31%), and Sanctum (-22%). While these figures do not definitively guarantee that Solana's price will remain below $150, the current technical setup suggests that the downside for Solana may not yet be over. The stagnant network fees and a subdued derivatives market could further delay SOL's price recovery.
Upbit's Solana Hack Adds Uncertainty to Market
Adding to the market's uncertainty, the Upbit exchange experienced a significant hack. Approximately $36 million was stolen from its Solana hot wallet on Thursday, a development that occurred just as the SOL token was showing signs of recovery from previous lows of $120. This incident has introduced fresh concerns into the SOL market.
🚨 ALERT: Upbit suspends deposits and withdrawals after $38.5M abnormal outflow on Solana network, reporting the assets were transferred to unknown wallet on Nov 27.
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 27, 2025
Upbit confirms it will cover all losses. pic.twitter.com/28Eu61s1Tf
By halting SOL deposits and withdrawals for maintenance, the South Korean exchange has effectively curbed liquidity. This move has the potential to amplify sell-offs and disrupt trading flows, as users are prevented from easily exiting or entering positions. Such disruptions can foster volatility, which could erode any emerging bullish momentum towards the $150 resistance level. Despite the breach, SOL's price saw a 3% increase to $143 post-announcement, indicating some resilience, but the event has introduced pared gains and heightened short-term pressure.
SOL Price Bear Flag Pattern Targets $100
Analyzing the price action on the six-hour chart, SOL's price movement has formed a distinct bear flag pattern. This pattern is recognized as a bearish continuation setup, typically occurring when the price consolidates in an upward parallel channel following a sharp downward move.
In Solana's case, this bear flag began to take shape after SOL reached a peak of approximately $170 on November 17. The consolidation phase has persisted since then, characterized by a gradual upward price movement and retests of the flag's support line, which is currently positioned around $140.
A decisive break below this support level would validate the bear flag pattern. Such a breakout would open the door for a bearish continuation, with the pattern's measured target pointing towards $99. This would represent a total loss of 30% from the current price levels.
Trader MR Ape commented on the significance of the $145 level, noting that it has "rejected the price three times already and momentum is slowing again" as SOL price approaches this zone. He further stated, "SOL is at a key pivot; the market will reveal its next move right here."
Previously, it was reported that a drop below the bottom of the flag, around $120, could lead to the SOL/USDT pair plunging further to $110 and subsequently to $95, where buyers are anticipated to re-enter the market.