Key Insights
- •Solana price is up 6%, trading near $167, but needs to reach $202 to confirm a breakout.
- •Short-term holders are selling early, while whales move coins to exchanges.
- •Indicators show rising energy, but no strong buying signal yet.
Solana price has climbed about 6% in the last 24 hours, trading near $167. That sounds bullish, but not fully. The next big move begins only if Solana gains 20% more to reach $202, a level that has stopped rallies before.
This $202 mark is not just another price. It’s the wall that has rejected Solana several times in the past. Crossing it could open the path for a bigger rally, but failing again might pull the price back. The question now is, who’s ready to buy enough to push it there? At present, not many.
Solana Short-Term Holders Exit Amid Heavy Selling
To understand the slowdown, we need to see what holders are doing. Short-term traders, those who held Solana for one week to one month, have started selling early.
Their supply share has dropped from 14% to 11%, showing that many are taking profits instead of waiting for more gains.
This move is represented by the HODL Waves metric, which tracks cohort-based token holdings.
At the same time, data shows over 730,000 SOL moved to exchanges this week.
When coins flow into exchanges, it usually means SOL sellers are preparing to dump, not investors buying to hold.
This means large holders may be getting ready to sell if the price climbs a bit more. This pattern is a well-known Solana price roadblock. Every time the price manages to move up, selling pressure surfaces.
So, even though Solana is rising, some of the biggest players are not counting on a breakout yet. And that selling pressure could slow things down before Solana even reaches $180. Crossing that level would mean some conviction.
Indicators Are Slowly Turning Promising
Even with the selling, not everything looks bearish.
Money flow indicators show that buying energy is slowly returning. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures whether money is moving in or out of a coin, has broken its downtrend.
That means inflows are improving; more money is entering than before. But the CMF is still below zero. In most cases, CMF translates to big wallet movements.
This could mean that Solana whales are slowly getting back to buying ways.
Yet, the buying is not strong enough to push prices higher. For a clear momentum shift, the broken-out CMF must cross above the zero line and stay there for some time.
Meanwhile, the derivatives market, where traders use leverage to bet on future prices, shows no clear direction.
Long and short positions are nearly equal.
That means there is no short squeeze setup, where rising prices force sellers to buy back quickly. Without that fuel, Solana will need real spot buying to move further.
The 20% Push That Could Help With the Solana Price Rally
At press time, Solana price sits near $167. If it climbs to $202, that would be a 20% jump. That could confirm that the rally is real. But if selling continues and buyers slow down, the move could fail before it gets there. Also, a dip under $150 could invalidate the bullish sentiments.
For Solana price to break out, it needs one thing: strong, steady buying that can carry it through $202. Until that happens, every rise may still face resistance, and every dip may test traders’ patience. In simpler words, a bigger SOL price rally would need a smaller 20% rally first.