While many crypto market participants are debating what it might take to trigger a significant Bitcoin daily candle, ProCap chief investment officer Jeff Park has narrowed it down to one key catalyst.
“A black swan event for Bitcoin upside would be sovereign adoption,” Park said during a podcast interview published to YouTube on Thursday.
“If there was, for some reason, all of a sudden, news that a major developed market, OECD country, was going to buy Bitcoin on the balance sheet, and actually do it,” Park explained.
"It Would Have to Be Real"
Park stated that such an announcement could potentially propel Bitcoin (BTC) to approximately $150,000 overnight. This would represent a 76% increase from its publication price of $85,089. However, Park stressed the critical importance of authenticity, emphasizing that the event must be genuine and not a marketing ploy, rumor, or misinterpretation of official statements.
“It would have to be real,” he reiterated. “It couldn’t be this fake version we lived with for about a year.”
Jan3 founder Samson Mow recently commented that nation-state adoption might occur sooner than anticipated. “I think we’re on the tail end of gradually, and we’re at the beginning phases of suddenly,” Mow remarked.
Park also suggested that some clarity regarding the resolution of quantum computing threats could positively impact Bitcoin’s price action in the short term.
Quantum Computing: A "Weird Boogie Man" for Bitcoiners
“I know quantum is this weird boogie man that people keep talking about,” Park said, positing that this uncertainty might be a contributing factor to recent selling by Bitcoin long-term holders.
“If the whales are selling, they are selling for reasons that are probably just as likely to be improbable for the reasons having bought in 2012 and 2011,” he added.
“You have to just ascribe these tail events as catalysts for how their behavior changes,” he stated.
However, analysis from Glassnode indicates that recent selling by Bitcoin whales is not outside the norm.
Quantum Clarity Could Alleviate Selling Pressure, According to Park
“Long-term holders have been realizing profits throughout this cycle, just as they did in every previous one,” Glassnode reported on November 14.
Park believes that some degree of clarity on the quantum computing issue could be “the type of thing that stops at least the selling pressure.”
“If you stop the selling pressure at least, then you know the buying pressure is actually adding incremental more capital for price action,” he explained.
Concerns surrounding quantum computing and its potential impact on Bitcoin have been escalating recently. Gianluca Di Bella, a smart-contract researcher specializing in zero-knowledge proofs, has warned that the danger posed by quantum computing is not a future threat but a present one.
In related commentary, Bitcoin veteran Willy Woo recently suggested an “intermediary measure.” This involves transferring Bitcoin to a SegWit-compatible address and holding it there until a quantum-safe protocol is developed.