Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) might not experience further declines below the $100,000 mark, provided that positive developments in global markets continue.
Global Market Optimism and Bitcoin's Performance
Kendrick highlighted in a recent note that progress in US-China trade talks has shifted market sentiment from fear to hope. He pointed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement over the weekend, indicating a one-year postponement of restrictions on China's rare earth exports. Furthermore, Beijing is anticipated to significantly increase its purchases of US soybeans in the coming years.
This potential agreement is expected to be formally confirmed following the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. These de-escalating tensions have fostered increased optimism in risk markets, leading to a rise in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio above its pre-October 10 levels. This ratio serves as an indicator of Bitcoin's market value relative to gold, with an upward trend generally signifying greater risk appetite among investors.
"If this ratio rises above 30 again, it would signal the end of the period of fear in the markets," Kendrick stated.
ETF Inflows and Bitcoin's Future Trajectory
The Standard Chartered analyst further suggested that new inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) would serve as additional confirmation of Bitcoin's strengthening position. Kendrick observed that US gold ETFs experienced outflows totaling $2 billion between Wednesday and Friday of the previous week. He commented, "If even half of that money returns to Bitcoin ETFs this week, that would be a strong positive signal."
Kendrick considers Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high as the "ultimate confirmation" of its resilience. He elaborated, "If this happens, it would be the beginning of the end for those who believe Bitcoin peaked due to the halving cycle. I believe the halving cycle is no longer important, and ETF inflows are much more decisive."
Monetary Policy and Corporate Earnings
The analyst also noted that a new 25 basis point interest rate cut is anticipated at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday, which would be a positive development for Bitcoin.
In addition to these factors, this week is also marked by the expected release of financial results from major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon, as well as cryptocurrency-related firms like Coinbase and Strategy.
Conclusion on Bitcoin's Price Outlook
Kendrick concluded his assessment with a definitive statement regarding Bitcoin's price potential: "If this week goes well, Bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again."