Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings and Treasury Model
Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation has slowed in recent quarters, but Wall Street analysts maintain their bullish outlook on the company's treasury model. The firm currently holds 640,808 Bitcoin, representing approximately 3.1% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Shares traded at $269.66 on Friday, climbing by over 5% as Bitcoin hovered near $109,500. The company's valuation premium, measured by its mNAV multiple, dropped to 1.2x during the third quarter, marking its lowest level since early 2023.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Mizuho Securities maintained its Outperform rating with a $586 price target. Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins noted the company achieved a 26% year-to-date Bitcoin yield, approaching its 30% annual target. The firm projects Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end 2025, implying a three-year growth rate between 20% and 25%.
TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete kept their Buy rating while adjusting the price target to $535 from $620. The rating downgrade reflects slower fourth-quarter momentum, though the firm sees significant upside from Strategy's recent B-minus credit rating from S&P.
Benchmark's Mark Palmer held his Buy rating with a $705 price target, characterizing the mNAV compression as cyclical rather than structural. Palmer emphasized that management sees strong investor interest in the perpetual preferred-stock program, designed to attract institutional capital seeking tax-advantaged exposure to Bitcoin-linked yields.
Impact of Credit Rating and Future Outlook
This new rating unlocks access to a $4.9 trillion institutional capital pool, potentially tripling the company's funding capacity over time. TD Cowen expects the new Return-of-Capital tax treatment for preferred-stock dividends to attract institutional demand in 2026, as investors can defer taxes indefinitely while holding shares.
All three firms view the current slowdown as temporary. Analysts expect Strategy's capital raising and Bitcoin accumulation to accelerate once market conditions and premiums normalize, with TD Cowen forecasting that robust activity will return by the first half of 2026.
The company continues to model sustained Bitcoin price appreciation. Analysts maintain that Strategy's approach of converting investor capital into Bitcoin per share remains viable as long as capital market access persists.