Bitcoin ends this year on a familiar note. Down more than 36 % from its annual highs, the asset eerily replicates the movements of the 2022 bear market. This correlation alarms analysts as crypto ETFs register positive inflows again. Between the return of institutional capital and memories of a previous crash, the market oscillates between concern and hopes of a rebound.
In brief
- •In 2025, bitcoin records a drop of over 36 % from its annual highs.
- •Analysts observe a 98% correlation between BTC’s current trajectory and the 2022 bear market.
- •This similarity renews the hypothesis of a prolonged cycle, with a potential trough by Q1 2026.
- •Despite this drop, crypto ETFs register $226 million in net inflows in one week.
An Almost Perfect Correlation with the 2022 Bear Market
For Timothy Peterson, analyst and manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, bitcoin’s current dynamics follow “an identical trajectory to that of the second half of 2022”.
In a post shared on X, he states that the bitcoin price correlation over 30 days with its past performance now reaches 0.98, i.e., 98 %. On a daily scale, it remains above 80 %. These levels leave little room for interpretation. According to him, current fluctuations accurately reproduce the movements seen during the last major correction cycle.
Here are the main points noted by the analyst:
- •A monthly correlation of 98 % between the current asset price and that of 2022 for the same period;
- •A daily correlation above 80 %, confirming a very marked alignment of the curves;
- •The 36 % drop from this year’s highs, a figure comparable to that recorded during the last bear market;
- •The projection of a potential trough not reached before Q1 2026, if the past cycle repeats.
For technical analysts, these elements strengthen the hypothesis of prolonged inertia in prices, fueled by contained volatility and declining trading volumes. The historical analogy does not necessarily imply an exact repetition, but it remains a signal that experienced investors watch closely.
Return of Capital: Crypto ETFs Turn Green Again
Alongside this price inertia, another signal draws market watchers’ attention: net flows into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have turned positive again.
According to weekly data, these products recorded net inflows of $226 million in the week ending November 24. A notable figure that ends four consecutive weeks of capital outflows.
This return of flows mainly concerns US-based ETFs, which alone attract $137 million in net inflows. Institutional investors seem to be cautiously returning to these assets, possibly taking advantage of price dips to reposition themselves. Market sentiment remains mixed, with some analysts seeing a simple technical rebound linked to the Thanksgiving period, while others read it as the beginnings of a more structural movement.
While bitcoin accurately reflects the 2022 bear cycle, Bitcoin ETFs are rising again. This gap between technical analysis and institutional dynamics highlights the ambient uncertainty and raises the question of a possible trend change or a mere pause in an always fragile market.