Analyst Outlook on Strategy Adjusts
Wall Street analysts have adjusted their outlook on Strategy despite the company's continued Bitcoin accumulation strategy. TD Cowen dropped its 12-month price projection to $440 from a previous $500 target while reaffirming a Buy recommendation on the Virginia-based firm.
Recent Bitcoin Acquisitions
Strategy deployed approximately $1.25 billion during the first week of January to acquire 13,600 additional Bitcoin. The purchases occurred during a period when the cryptocurrency experienced price weakness, pushing the company's total holdings to 687,400 Bitcoin valued at above $62.8 billion at current market rates.
Research analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete noted that Strategy actively embraced recent price compression rather than pausing its treasury operations. The firm raised capital through both common stock sales and variable-rate preferred shares branded as Stretch, converting nearly all proceeds into immediate Bitcoin purchases.
Michael Saylor's Valuation Perspective
Chairman Michael Saylor has rejected evaluation frameworks that focus exclusively on net asset value multiples when assessing Strategy's performance. Saylor emphasized that corporate valuation should reflect operational value creation rather than simple comparisons between market capitalization and underlying asset holdings.
Market Infrastructure and Bitcoin Price Formation
Kronos Research's chief investment officer, Vincent Liu, connected Strategy's aggressive approach to fundamental changes in Bitcoin market infrastructure. He explained that institutional derivatives markets, regulated exchange-traded funds, and systematic hedging strategies now drive price formation instead of purely speculative retail trading activity.
Improved liquidity conditions and tighter bid-ask spreads on regulated trading venues support Strategy's treasury model, according to Liu's assessment. Capital increasingly flows through traditional financial channels rather than unregulated exchanges, creating more stable market conditions that reduce short-term volatility risks.
Bitcoin Ecosystem Development and Institutional Adoption
Tiger Research analyst Ryan Yoon highlighted that Bitcoin ecosystem development remains incomplete for the asset to function as reliable financial infrastructure. The emergence of decentralized finance applications built on Bitcoin demonstrates progress toward broader integration, though full institutional adoption likely requires complete regulatory alignment with traditional finance.
TD Cowen's Revised Projections
TD Cowen's revised target incorporates near-term pressure on Strategy's key performance metrics from recent common stock issuances at minimal premiums to net asset value. The analysts project Strategy will add 155,000 Bitcoin during 2026, substantially higher than previous estimates, while generating a 7.1% annual yield compared to 22.8% achieved in 2025.