As the cryptocurrency market steps into 2026, the focus shifts from mere price movements to significant transformations within market structures. The global macroeconomic uncertainty is now sculpting Bitcoin cycles, characterized by increased institutional capital inflows and a tightening of market mechanics. A new analysis by Kraken reveals that the swift price responses observed in previous cycles have been replaced by high-volume yet more controlled liquidity absorption.
Institutional Fund Movements Redefine Bitcoin Cycles
Thomas Perfumo, Kraken’s global chief economist, underscores that Bitcoin remains a primary indicator of risk perception, though demand and liquidity channels are visibly changing. In the United States, spot Bitcoin ETFs and companies holding crypto treasuries are becoming more significant influencers on price formation, despite approximately $44 billion in net spot demand throughout 2025, with prices falling short of expectations. The analysis indicates that the supply offered by long-term investors balances this robust demand.
According to Perfumo, this structure signifies a more mature phase where the market can absorb large entries without the “reflexive” rises seen in previous cycles. On the macro front, limited growth expectations, persistent inflation pressure, and a slower monetary easing process continue to weigh on risky assets. A caution about how calm periods may obscure deferred volatility further stands out in this context.
Kraken also views the peak levels of stablecoin liquidity and accelerating regulatory actions in the United States as defining pillars of 2026. Initiatives focused on stablecoins, like the GENIUS Act, and broader market structure reforms are expected to reshape how and where on-chain liquidity in the blockchain is formed.
Macro Pressures and Emerging Growth Areas
Kraken’s report highlights the notable momentum loss on the institutional front. The slowdown in ETF inflows compared to 2025 and challenges in company funding through share issuance suggest that without a clear “risk-on” environment, substantial momentum on the Bitcoin front could remain limited.
A similar macro focus is echoed in the ARK Invest 2026 outlook shared by Cathie Wood. Wood notes that while gold increased by 65% in 2025, Bitcoin’s decline of 6% underscores its distinct role in portfolio diversification, attributed to its long-term supply constraint and low correlation structure. This argument is supported by the lower correlation between Bitcoin and gold than the relationship between the S&P 500 and bonds.
In areas beyond Bitcoin, tokenization and DeFi token economies are set to become long-term driving forces. Standard Chartered analysts anticipate a stronger performance for the Ethereum network, supported by the acceleration of real-world asset migration onto the blockchain. Perfumo specifically notes that tokenization of widely held assets like large-scale U.S. equities could expand global demand and on-chain settlement activities.