PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, is questioning the four-year cycle foundation of his model. He suggests that the expectation of a bear market in 2026 is based on a cyclical misconception. Emphasizing the statistical insufficiency of previous cycles, he notes that while there are observations of repeated halving cycles, there is no guarantee of a peak exactly 18 months post-halving.
Shaking Faith in Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
In a recent assessment, PlanB proposed that Bitcoin’s price movements might exceed classical cycle patterns. He highlights the uncertainty by suggesting a peak could happen in 2026, 2027, or even 2028. Transitioning from focusing on peaks to average price levels, PlanB indicates no fundamental shift has yet occurred in this cycle and that the significant price jump is possibly still to come. He also suggests that a stable price regime dominated by institutional investors might have set in, which could be positive for Bitcoin in the long term.
Other analysts similarly believe that the bull market is not yet over. Blockchain analyst Willy Woo explains that in the previous cycle, peaks were driven by short-term derivative market liquidity, whereas the current cycle shows strong, long-term spot liquidity. This difference is interpreted as a sign of a lasting transformation in Bitcoin’s market structure.
Market Tensions Persist as Prices Recede
Anonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital mentions investor panic when Bitcoin fell below $104,000 last week, noting that many are now looking to exit at reasonable levels. However, it appears that the change in sentiment was short-lived, as Bitcoin fell more than 3% to $107,700 during Tuesday’s Asian trading session, attempting to find support around the critical $108,000 level.
Analysts emphasize that the Bitcoin and broader crypto market remain fragile and require foundational developments to rebuild confidence. Institutional investors’ re-entry, revitalization of fund flows—especially to ETFs—and a reduction in macro uncertainties are deemed prerequisites for a new wave of rising prices.