Experienced investor and analyst Peter Brandt has drawn attention by suggesting that Bitcoin’s price chart is developing a formation similar to the 1977 soybean crash. He warns that if this scenario unfolds, the biggest institutional Bitcoin investor, Strategy, could suffer significant losses.
Expanding Top Formation Alert from Brandt
Peter Brandt highlighted the dramatic collapse in the soybean market in 1977 through his social media account. Back then, after an expanding top formation appeared on the chart, the price plummeted nearly 50%. According to Brandt, Bitcoin’s chart is currently resembling this structure, posing a hefty challenge to Strategy’s leveraged Bitcoin plan.
Brandt also touched upon fundamental mistakes investors make in risk management, warning, “Anyone trading with 5% of their capital will eventually wipe out their portfolio. It’s just a matter of time.” He outlined two opposite scenarios for Bitcoin: the price could either surge to $250,000 or fall back to around $60,000.
In response to the same post, another analyst known as TheMarketSniper argued that the chart similarity might be misleading. Brandt, in an uncharacteristically humble manner, agreed, stating, “You might be right. I’d go long if it rises and short if it falls.”
Brandt’s caution is of critical importance for Strategy, which holds over 640,000 BTC in its balance sheet. A potential 50% drop in Bitcoin could drastically erode the company’s asset value and severely challenge its high-leverage-supported strategy.
Approaching the Peak of the Bitcoin Cycle?
Various market analyses suggest that Bitcoin is nearing a mature phase of its cycle. Analyst Crypto₿irb claims that, according to the Cycle Peak Countdown model, 99.3% of the current cycle is complete, with a potential peak expected in the coming days. This model relies on institutional investor profit-taking and weakening signals in blockchain data.
During the same period, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao revived the classic comparison between Bitcoin and gold. He stated, “I predict Bitcoin will surpass gold. I don’t know when, but it will happen.” Experts report that following the sharpest daily drop in gold prices since 2013, capital has shifted toward Bitcoin.