The much-anticipated “altcoin season” within the cryptocurrency markets appears to be postponed to 2025, influenced heavily by new macroeconomic data from the United States. Traditionally defined as periods when assets other than Bitcoin experience sharp rises, this year’s alt season has not materialized, largely due to ongoing industrial stagnation and insufficient global liquidity. Analysts attribute the recent wave of selling to a natural price correction following months of growth, soaring gold prices, a tense stock market, and concerns over the unlimited supply of cryptos.
The Key Indicator Predicting Altcoin Seasons
Recent analyses spotlight the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data as one of the most reliable macro indicators predicting past alt seasons. The latest data for November dropped to 48.2, falling short of expectations, confirming a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. This index, drawing on responses from over 400 companies about new orders, production, employment, inventories, and delivery times, signals an economic slowdown if it remains below 50, as has been the case, preventing a robust industrial recovery through 2025.
Historical data reveals that during bull periods in 2017 and 2021, the ISM index surpassed 55, indicating that altcoin markets typically experience strong rallies only in times of economic expansion. Currently, many altcoins experience brief, short-term jumps, but lacking the necessary macroeconomic backdrop for a sustained trend shift.
Market Psychology, Bitcoin Dominance, and Emerging Developments
There’s a significant division among crypto investors. Some view the phenomenon of projects losing 90% of their value only to double on the rebound as an unhealthy signal of an “altcoin season.” Others argue that altcoins have been suppressed for a long time, making a significant capital rotation inevitable. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s dominance retracting from its 50-week average is reminiscent of patterns observed before previous alt seasons.
Comments circulating in the markets highlight macro expectations for the second half of the year. Forecasts for 2026 suggest interest rate cuts, increased global liquidity, and a more supportive regulatory environment. If this scenario materializes, the ISM index might re-enter the expansion zone, providing a solid base for altcoin markets to rise more sustainably.
Additionally, significant outflows from US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs last week have further constrained risk appetite. The cautious stance of institutional investors continues to pressure not only Bitcoin but also the altcoin markets. Meanwhile, news about blockchain-based payment systems and central bank digital currencies from some Asian countries could reignite interest in altcoin projects in the medium term.
The year 2025 marks an ongoing test of patience for altcoin investors. While current macro data do not establish the liquidity and economic expansion conditions necessary for an alt season, the expectations for 2026 are not entirely eclipsed. Investors focusing on global financial conditions and industrial data over short-term price movements will likely find healthier positions.