The Supreme Court is set to convene on Wednesday, with the agenda focusing on tariffs, a topic that has sparked heated discussions. This ongoing debate comes at a precarious time for cryptocurrencies, where increasing uncertainty is proving detrimental. As tensions rise, the volatility surrounding cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is further exacerbated. What course of action will the Supreme Court undertake, and what could the consequences be? How will cryptocurrencies be affected?
Tariffs Under Supreme Court Scrutiny
November 5th marks a significant day, previously highlighted in the weekly schedule article on Sunday. Several companies and states argue that Trump exceeded his legal authority with these tariffs. Lower courts have been approached with these claims, eventually elevating the issue to the Supreme Court.
This year, Trump introduced three types of tariffs: a basic tariff of 10% on all countries, punitive tariffs on countries perceived as adversaries to the U.S., and additional punitive tariffs on countries lacking efforts against fentanyl, including Canada, China, and Mexico.
The aim is for these tariffs to generate close to $1 trillion for the U.S. by June 2026. Additionally, Trump’s tariff threats have attracted trillions in investments to the U.S. Some of these deals have reached completion, and the target is a $15 trillion impact.
Optimistically, the tariffs could contribute $15 trillion to the U.S. economy. However, if the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s authority, this potential revenue would disappear, and the billions collected thus far would be refunded, inducing chaos and uncertainty. The negotiations and discussions that spanned 2025 would be rendered moot.
The Implications for Cryptocurrencies
Should Trump lose in court, he might attempt to re-impose similar tariffs using different authorities. This would disrupt any normalization efforts, initially affecting cryptocurrencies negatively, as Trump is unlikely to shy away from confrontation.
Three lower courts have determined that Trump misapplied the 1977 law allowing economic regulation in emergencies. Nevertheless, the full implementation of the tariffs continues pending the Supreme Court’s final decision.
Imagine the statements from China and other countries following the court’s decision. They might claim, “We wasted a year because Trump had no authority to impose these tariffs; we won’t overpay anymore.” How will Trump respond to such declarations? Amidst this chaos, the reaction of risk markets, including cryptocurrencies, remains uncertain. This scenario illustrates a risky path if Trump loses.
What could Trump’s next move be? Laws permit the imposition of additional tariffs under national security on sectors like automotive, steel, aluminum, and copper. Furthermore, the 1974 Trade Act permits a provisional 15% tariff due to trade imbalances, albeit as a weaker option for Trump.
If Trump emerges victorious, future U.S. Presidents might leverage tariffs as a threat against other countries, potentially leading to unforeseen additional tariffs. However, the silver lining is that other nations would likely enter into long-term agreements with Trump to reduce uncertainty at least in the medium term, favoring cryptocurrencies. Trump once remarked:
“If we lose this case, we’ll remain in a long-standing financial mess. If we win, we’ll become the world’s strongest economy.”