A long-term technical trend indicator for Bitcoin has turned bearish, leading at least one analyst to believe that the bull market may be over.
“From a technical standpoint, the bull market is over,” crypto analyst 'Crypto₿irb' told his 700,000 X followers on Thursday.
Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits a “persistent trend shift, confirmed by price percentage traveled, volume spikes, above-average volatility, time spent below the 200-day trend, and worsened breadth,” he said as he predicted 2026 to be a year of declines.
The analysis highlighted a downturn in the 200-day trend, a visual tool analysts use to connect specific points and gauge trend strength or breakouts.
Additionally, the 200-day moving average, a different indicator that shows the mathematical average price of BTC over the past 200 days, turned downward in mid-November when a “death cross” occurred as it dipped below the shorter-term 50-day moving average.
These indicators are closely watched as a long-term support level and signals for bull and bear markets.
Bitcoin Bear Market Calls Are Increasing
“There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market,” Markus Thielen from 10x Research told Cointelegraph. He added that we are currently in “a bear market reversal rally.”
However, Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital, told Cointelegraph that the buying pressure from digital asset treasuries (DATs) that we saw in H1 of this year is behind us, but it “doesn’t mean we are in a bear market.”
The direction going forward will be determined by risk assets in general, and being selective as an investor will be more important than ever.
Short-Term Relief for the Bitcoin Bulls
Crypto analyst ‘Skew’ said on Thursday that things are “looking a lot more constructive here for the bulls,” from a four-hour chart time frame.
Momentum is toward the upside if buyers and the market can muster strength from here.
Falling back below $88,000 “would be a sign of weakness and failed momentum to drive higher,” and the key area is $90,000 to $92,000, an “initial area for the market to fight over structural trend.”
BTC came just shy of $92,000 on Coinbase during early trading on Thursday morning, but had retreated to $91,200 at the time of publication.