Bitcoin (BTC) is showing strong indicators that it could reclaim the $100,000 mark and potentially rally towards $107,000 in the upcoming days. This optimistic outlook is supported by a confluence of favorable technical patterns and fundamental metrics.
The current breakout in Bitcoin's price action is gaining momentum, bolstered by bullish technical signals and a noticeable decrease in selling pressure.
Ascending Triangle and Bullish Crossover Signal Increased Rally Potential
Bitcoin has recently confirmed a breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle pattern, entering a typical retest phase where former resistance acts as new support.
After surpassing the upper boundary of the pattern, which was situated around $95,000, BTC experienced a pullback to test this level as support before resuming its upward movement. This behavior is characteristic of valid breakouts rather than false signals.
Sustaining this reclaimed support level is crucial for maintaining the integrity of the "real breakout" structure. This pattern suggests a potential upside objective near $107,000, calculated by adding the triangle's maximum height to the breakout point, with a projected timeline by February.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin's daily chart is approaching a significant bullish crossover event between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Historically, when such a bullish crossover has occurred, Bitcoin's price has seen an approximate 17% increase over the subsequent month, further strengthening the argument for continued upward trend.
Long-Term Holders Are Reducing Selling Pressure
The credibility of Bitcoin's breakout is further enhanced by the continued reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders.
Analysis of spent outputs from long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as coins dormant for over five years, indicates a significant slowdown in distribution activity during recent price peaks.
In January, the 90-day average of spent outputs reached a peak of nearly 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle but has since decreased to around 1,000 BTC. This suggests that fewer coins are being moved to the market.
Earlier in the current rally, selling from these "OG" holders had surged to levels significantly above those seen in the previous bull market. This was likely influenced by an attractive exit window created by strong demand from spot ETFs, increased liquidity, and substantial institutional participation.
Analyst DarkFrost observed, "This suggests that OGs have also slowed down their selling. Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution."
"This suggests that OGs have also slowed down their selling. Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution."
This reduction in selling from long-term holders is consistent with the largest net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges observed since December 2024.
Negative Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Suggests Bullish Trend for BTC
An additional macroeconomic signal supporting the current breakout thesis is Bitcoin's historical correlation with gold.
In previous instances where Bitcoin's correlation with gold turned negative, Bitcoin has historically rallied by an average of 56% within approximately two months. The only notable exception occurred in May 2021, which was influenced by significant external factors such as China's mining crackdown and forced deleveraging events.
The current market environment, as of 2026, appears more conducive to a similar positive outcome. This is supported by increasing global liquidity and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program.
Macroeconomic Factors Support Bitcoin's Outperformance
Matt Hougan, from Bitwise, has noted that Bitcoin bull markets have historically coincided with periods of expanding global M2 supply. He suggests that the current monetary easing cycle could position Bitcoin to outperform gold in 2026. This economic backdrop reinforces the case for a sustained breakout towards higher price levels.