Key Challenges and Divisions within the FOMC
Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the “Fed spokesman,” noted that the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was different from previous sessions in many ways.
The dot plot in September showed a split in opinion among Committee members: the majority of members supported continuing interest rate cuts for risk management reasons, while a significant minority argued that further cuts were not necessary.
Normally, new economic data helps offset such differences. However, the lack of release of key data due to the government shutdown did not provide sufficient reason for members to change their views.
In September's projections, a slight majority of members predicted two additional interest rate cuts before the end of the year, while some members argued that this was unnecessary. The primary reason for this division was the lack of new economic data. The lack of labor market indicators, in particular, made the decision-making process uncertain.
Impact of Government Shutdown on Data and Decision-Making
The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut this week has largely been priced in by markets. However, the real challenge is deciding what policy to follow. The lack of employment and inflation data due to the government shutdown complicates the Committee's future assessment.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the situation by saying, “If we stop collecting data, it will be difficult to conduct analysis. If this situation continues, data collection may also be hampered.”
The data blackout gives Powell some leeway when answering questions about the upcoming period. “There hasn’t been much new information since September,” said former Fed advisor William English. “That keeps members close to their previous positions but widens the uncertainty band.”
Balancing Inflation Risks and Labor Market Concerns
Powell stated that “there is no risk-free path,” arguing that lowering interest rates too much could accelerate inflation again, but keeping them high could harm the labor market.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran is expected to oppose a larger 50 basis point cut at this week's meeting, but without significant signs of weakening in the labor market, that proposal is unlikely to garner support.
Considerations for Balance Sheet Reduction
Officials will also discuss when to end the $6.6 trillion balance sheet reduction program. Analysts say the move could be justified if overnight interest rates approach the upper end of the target range.