BitMine chair Tom Lee has revised his earlier prediction for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of the year, stating during a recent CNBC interview that this target is now improbable. He suggested that Bitcoin might instead return to its October record of $125,100, adding a hesitant "maybe" when questioned about the possibility of a new peak.
Lee had consistently maintained the $250,000 target throughout the first half of 2024 and into early October. Wednesday's statement marks the first clear indication that he no longer anticipates this outcome.
His outlook had been among the most optimistic from prominent figures in the cryptocurrency sector. Other industry leaders, such as Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, had argued in October that achieving such a high Bitcoin price in the current market environment would require extraordinary market forces.
Despite this adjustment, Lee still sees potential for significant price movement before the close of 2025. "I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high," he stated. He further elaborated that he expects some of Bitcoin’s strongest trading sessions to occur within the next 35 days.
A Market Known for Sudden Jumps
Lee highlighted a common pattern in the Bitcoin market: the asset often achieves the majority of its yearly gains within a concentrated period of trading sessions. He noted that Bitcoin typically "makes its move" in approximately 10 days each year, a sentiment shared by other industry professionals.
In a February 2024 X post, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley pointed out that missing these exceptional trading days in previous years resulted in missing nearly all of Bitcoin's long-term gains. In 2024, Bitcoin's top 10 trading sessions collectively saw a 52% increase, while the remaining days averaged a 15% loss.
The market has experienced challenges since October 10, following a $19 billion liquidation wave that was reportedly triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for six consecutive days before recovering above that level on Wednesday.
Mixed Record on Past Calls
Historically, November has been Bitcoin's strongest month since 2013, according to CoinGlass. However, the current year has not adhered to this trend. Economist Timothy Peterson suggested on Monday that Bitcoin may have already reached its cycle low or is nearing that point.
Lee's previous price forecasts have a history of both misses and successes. In January 2018, he predicted that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022; the asset only surpassed that level in October 2024.
Conversely, in July 2017, he projected a base case of $20,000 by 2022, with an upper range of $55,000. Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, indicating that these earlier calls were closer to the actual market performance.