Traders on Kalshi: Odds of XRP Hitting $4 or Above This Year Have Fallen

Market sentiment around XRP has turned cautious as traders on Kalshi, a regulated event trading exchange, reduced the probability of the cryptocurrency reaching $4 or higher this year to 20%.

The data was shared by Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider), a crypto commentator on X, who posted an image of the Kalshi market showing “Yes 20%” beside the question of whether XRP would end the year at $4 or above.

The decline in trader confidence comes after a period of volatility that followed XRP’s sharp surge to record highs in mid-July. The token reached a peak of $3.65 that month, following a rally fueled by optimism over regulatory progress in the U.S. and speculation surrounding potential spot crypto ETFs. However, momentum has since weakened.

Sharp Decline From July Highs

XRP currently trades around $2.34, according to recent market data. The current level represents a decline of more than 35% from its July peak, showing that the asset has been unable to sustain the enthusiasm that pushed it to its all-time high.

After that strong rally, selling pressure built as traders took profits and enthusiasm cooled in the absence of concrete regulatory or product developments. Whale sell-offs also contributed to XRP’s decline, and many other top assets struggled as the broader market experienced pressure.

The loss of upward momentum has changed the short-term outlook for many investors. A 20% probability on Kalshi reflects more skepticism, indicating that traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of driving XRP above $4 before year-end.

ETF Progress but No Approval Yet

The state of spot XRP ETFs continues to influence sentiment across the digital asset market. While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken steps toward simplifying the approval process for spot crypto exchange-traded products, a specific spot XRP ETF has not been approved or listed.

The SEC’s new framework, introduced in September, allows exchanges to list certain spot-based crypto products under standardized rules, which could expedite future filings.

Despite the regulatory progress, XRP has yet to see a direct benefit. Traders appear to be waiting for a confirmed ETF launch or a broader shift in investor appetite before re-entering the market with conviction.

For now, traders on Kalshi assign just a one-in-five chance that XRP will hit $4 or above this year. The lack of a spot ETF for XRP, combined with the digital asset’s recent downturn, suggests that institutional participation remains muted, and many retail investors are wary.