The cryptocurrency world has been abuzz since Donald Trump issued a pardon to Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the founder of Binance. This decision has significant implications for both financial markets and ethical considerations. Two years after CZ pleaded guilty to violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act, Trump has expunged his record.
The question now arises: could Sam Bankman-Fried be the next individual to receive presidential clemency?
Trump's pardon of CZ on October 23, 2025, sent ripples through the finance and political spheres. CZ had already served time and paid substantial fines, including $4.3 billion for Binance and $50 million personally. His offense was primarily related to compliance failures rather than direct embezzlement.
This pardon has not only cleared CZ's record but has also reignited discussions about Trump's influence on cryptocurrency regulation. Notably, Trump had previously pardoned Ross Ulbricht and the founders of BitMEX. This precedent leads many cryptocurrency holders to ponder whether Sam Bankman-Fried could also be granted a pardon.
The Gravity of Sam Bankman-Fried's Case
Sam Bankman-Fried, widely known as SBF, was at the epicenter of one of the most significant scandals in cryptocurrency history. His downfall sent shockwaves through the financial industry. In 2023, he was convicted on seven felony counts, including charges related to orchestrating a massive fraud through FTX and Alameda Research.
Allegations surfaced that he had misused customer funds for speculative trading and political donations, misappropriating approximately $8 billion. The collapse of his ventures resulted in the loss of life savings for many, severely damaged trust, and tarnished the reputation of the entire cryptocurrency sector.
As one analyst on X, FarmMyTears, commented, if SBF were to be released after these events, it would appear less like a matter of justice and more like a political transaction.
Factors Fueling Pardon Speculation
The conversation surrounding a potential SBF pardon did not originate from the White House but rather from market activity. Following Trump's decision to pardon CZ, betting platforms such as Polymarket observed a significant increase in the odds for an SBF pardon, rising from 4% to 16%.
Crypto commentator Crypto Patel highlighted that this surge represents market speculation rather than any confirmed political movement. According to Patel, SBF's family has been actively lobbying for clemency since January, and SBF himself has been reportedly attempting to cultivate a "pro-Republican" image. However, there is no concrete evidence to suggest that Trump is actively considering a pardon for him.
The current discourse is largely driven by optics rather than substantive developments. CZ's pardon can be attributed to clear political and financial rationales. In contrast, SBF's alleged crimes involve direct victims and substantial financial losses, creating a stark difference between the two cases.
The intensity of this debate is not solely due to the specifics of SBF's case; it also reflects the increasing intersection of politics and the cryptocurrency industry.
FarmMyTears noted that Binance's strategic alignment with figures associated with Trump, particularly through the World Liberty Financial project backed by the Trump family, may have facilitated CZ's pardon. This connection potentially offered Binance a pathway back into the U.S. market.
Reasons Why an SBF Pardon Remains Improbable
Granting a pardon to SBF could suggest that political considerations outweigh the principles of justice. Such a move might lead to pardons being perceived as transactions rather than equitable decisions, implying that financial influence and connections hold greater sway than the plight of victims and the need for accountability.
Despite ongoing speculation, a pardon for SBF appears highly unlikely. His actions were demonstrably clear, intentional, and resulted in significant harm. The cryptocurrency community may not be prepared to overlook or forgive an individual so closely linked to one of its most damaging scandals.
Crypto Patel further elaborated that while Trump has expressed leniency towards certain cryptocurrency founders, the nature of SBF's alleged offenses is on a different magnitude. CZ's case involved compliance failures, whereas SBF is accused of orchestrating a large-scale fraud. This fundamental difference between negligence and deliberate criminal activity makes a pardon highly improbable.
Even allies of Trump within Washington might be hesitant to be associated with an individual whose actions have caused widespread harm to millions of ordinary investors. From a political standpoint, the potential negative repercussions could far outweigh any perceived benefits.
Regardless of whether Trump ever contemplates SBF's name for a pardon, the current situation highlights a broader trend: cryptocurrency is no longer operating in a political vacuum. Pardons, strategic alliances, and influence are now shaping the trajectory of the industry, alongside technological innovation.