US President Donald Trump announced that the individual responsible for leaking information regarding Venezuela has been apprehended and is currently in jail. This statement has reignited attention on prediction markets following a series of highly accurate bets made earlier this month.
Trump made the announcement in the Oval Office on Wednesday, stating, "The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail right now." This comment was captured in a video shared by The Wall Street Journal.
While President Trump did not directly reference prediction markets, blockchain analysts, including those from Lookonchain, have suggested a potential connection between the apprehended leaker and a group of Polymarket accounts. These accounts reportedly placed substantial bets on outcomes related to Venezuela shortly before the news became public.
Lookonchain observed, "We noticed that two of the three wallets that previously profited from betting on Venezuelan President Maduro being out of office have been inactive for 11 days," in an X post on Thursday.
Active Accounts Continue Betting on Iran
Regarding the inactive wallets, Lookonchain specifically highlighted the Polymarket account "0xa72DB1." This account reportedly transformed an initial stake of approximately $5,800 into roughly $75,000 by betting on the outcome that Venezuelan President Maduro would no longer be in office by January 31, 2026.
Lookonchain also pointed to the account "0x31a56e," which made a series of bets concerning Venezuela before its activity on Polymarket ceased around January 8.
The third notable wallet, "SBet365," placed a new bet two days prior, predicting the ousting of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by January 31. This observation was made by Lookonchain.
SBet365 was also among the accounts that achieved significant profits from their Venezuela-related bets on Polymarket, accumulating approximately $140,000 from wagers concerning Maduro's potential removal from office.
President Trump further commented on the situation, stating, "There could be some others [leakers], and we will let you know about that," in reference to the jailed individual linked to Venezuela.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Industry Response
These developments are occurring amidst ongoing scrutiny of prediction markets, with US lawmakers actively pursuing legislation aimed at preventing insider trading on political wagers.
Sean Patrick Maloney, president and CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry alliance formed in late 2025, stated that coalition members already prohibit insider trading through the enforcement of stringent Know Your Customer policies.
Maloney emphasized the importance of distinguishing between unregulated offshore prediction platforms and those federally regulated within the US. He told Cointelegraph, "It’s critical to draw a bright line between offshore, unregulated prediction platforms and federally regulated US ones." He added:
"Consistent with current law, offshore, unregistered platforms should not be able to operate in the US or serve US customers without the same safeguards and registrations, keeping this activity governed responsibly under US oversight."