Gold and silver closed 2025 at record levels, and the surge carried straight into 2026. Prices kept climbing as supply pressure, political risk, and new doubts around central bank independence pulled more money into metals.
On Monday, gold cleared $4,600 an ounce after news broke that Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is under criminal investigation linked to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.
By early Wednesday, spot gold traded around $4,633.46 an ounce. Silver also stayed hot. It broke above $90 for the first time on Tuesday and later traded 3.5% higher at $90.42 per ounce.
The gains followed a brutal year for anyone betting against metals. In 2025, spot gold rose about 65% and hit multiple records. Silver climbed roughly 150% over the same period. The run did not fade in January.
Gold is up 7.1% so far this year, while silver has already added 26.6%. Money managers now say the same forces that drove last year’s rally remain in place, with few signs of relief on supply or geopolitics.
Trade Conflicts and Resource Controls Tighten Supply
Daniel Casali, a partner in investment strategy at Evelyn Partners, said his team remains positive on both metals. He pointed to ongoing geopolitical stress, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcements last April, as drivers that continue to support gold prices.
“When Trump started to raise tariffs, China started to respond, so they pulled out what I would define as a battle between the U.S. and China of resource nationalism,” Daniel said.
He said China answered those tariffs by restricting rare earth exports, which exposed how critical those materials are to U.S. defense, technology, and AI supply chains.
He added that export limits later extended to silver, a key input for AI hardware, electric vehicles, renewables, and industrial production across the U.S. and Europe.
Investors are now watching for a possible in-person meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi in April. “How that goes? No idea,” Daniel said. “But you bet your bottom dollar export controls are going to be a key discussion point.”
Political risk rose again in the first week of 2026 after the U.S. removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the White House discussed possible military action to bring Greenland under U.S. control.
Daniel said both Washington and Beijing are lining up resources to gain leverage. China controls exports of rare earths and silver, while Trump is working to restrict flows of Venezuelan oil that largely go to China.
Price Targets Rise as Shortages and Policy Risk Persist
Ned Naylor‑Leyland, an investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management, said he said it was “absolutely” possible for gold to reach $5,000 this year and for silver to break $100. Based on current conditions, he said investors “should assume that that would definitely happen this year.”
Ned said silver remains the tighter market. He pointed to shortages caused by Beijing’s export controls. “Silver is basically disappearing now to China and India, there’s about a $10 premium being paid in Shanghai,” he said. He added that trading now centers on physical bars, not screens.
Silver plays a critical role across industries, from computers and phones to cars, appliances, and weapons systems. “The thing about silver is, if you don’t have it, you can’t build anything,” Ned said. “Whether it’s electronics or white goods or missiles or cars, you don’t have it, you can’t have it.”
On gold, he said wider political risk and easier monetary policy remain key. “The base case with gold is presuming central banks remain dovish,” he said. “We’re in a rate cutting environment with unconventional policies and chasing down Chairman Powell. Unless they reverse course and start hiking, you can expect gold to do pretty much what it did last year or more.”
Paul Syms, head of EMEA ETF fixed income and commodity product management at Invesco, said the same trends look even stronger now.
He added that Powell’s investigation raised fresh concerns about Fed independence and U.S. monetary policy. A dozen global central bankers, including the heads of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, later issued a statement backing Powell.
Paul said with ongoing worries around the dollar, budget deficits, lower rates, high geopolitical tension, and rising industrial demand for silver, there is no clear near term trigger that points to falling metal prices.