Bitcoin has experienced a smooth three-year climb from $16,000 to $125,000, reaffirming its established four-year market cycle. CryptoQuant's analysis, utilizing a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DMA) chart, indicates a consistent bullish structure without significant shock events during this cycle. While institutional capital has increased demand, it has not overridden the market rhythm driven by Bitcoin's halving events.
Shock-Free Surge: BTC Climbs from $16K to $125K
Over the past three years, Bitcoin has surged from the bear market lows of approximately $16,000 to its current high levels, notably without the disruptive events seen in previous cycles. Unlike the sharp decline during the March 2020 COVID crash, the impact of the May 2021 China mining ban, or the May 2022 Terra-Luna implosion, this ascent has been steadier. This period has been characterized by factors such as ETF approvals, national adoption, and corporate treasury investments, indicating a sustained demand. The CryptoQuant chart visually supports this trend, showing Bitcoin's price consistently above the 200-day moving average (DMA), with the 50DMA closely following during uptrends.
DMA Structure Confirms Momentum and Market Strength
The distance between Bitcoin's price and the 200DMA, represented in pink on the chart, has largely remained positive during bull phases, suggesting sustained upward momentum. Historical significant events like the COVID crash, the China ban dip, and the Luna capitulation are marked on the chart. Despite these, the 200DMA's slope has maintained a positive trajectory over three-year spans. Projections indicate that by mid-2025, Bitcoin is expected to test thresholds above $100,000, firmly within the third year of its upswing. The 52-week high and low bands further illustrate Bitcoin's contained volatility, staying within a defined range relative to its core pattern.
Institutions Add Fuel, but the Halving Sets the Rules
Axel Adler Jr.'s analysis challenges the notion that Bitcoin's cycle is broken, emphasizing that even significant institutional inflows, such as the over $50 billion directed into BTC via spot ETFs since January 2024, do not alter Bitcoin's fundamental rhythm. While institutions enhance demand, they do not dictate the four-year cycle, which is intrinsically linked to the halving events occurring every 210,000 blocks. This scarcity mechanism has governed Bitcoin since its inception. Adler suggests that a failure to recognize this pattern could lead to missed opportunities and potential losses in the market's eventual cooldown. He advises market participants to adopt a broader perspective, citing the 3-year view from 2020 lows to projected 2025 peaks as evidence of the pattern's persistence. With anticipated Fed rate cuts and easing global liquidity, Bitcoin may reach new highs before the cycle concludes.
In an environment often dominated by speculative trends, Adler's message emphasizes the importance of understanding and respecting Bitcoin's inherent cyclical nature. He posits that the market's impatience, rather than any fundamental flaw in Bitcoin, is the primary factor causing perceived deviations from historical patterns.