Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced its lowest Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) in a year, indicating that U.S. investors are exerting significant selling pressure relative to global markets.
Key Takeaways
- •U.S. selling pressure intensified as the Coinbase Premium Gap reached a one-year low during a market holiday.
- •A downside risk of $80,000 emerges if Bitcoin breaks down from its current rising-wedge pattern.
Holiday Selling Could Be a Bad Omen for BTC Price
As of Monday, Bitcoin's 30-day average CPG decreased to approximately -63.85, marking its lowest level since January 2025. This reading historically preceded a significant drop in BTC price, from above $102,000 to roughly $78,350 within a four-month period.
The CPG measures the price difference between Bitcoin's USD pair on Coinbase and its USDT pair on Binance. A deeply negative gap signifies that Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on Coinbase, suggesting that U.S. traders are selling more aggressively than their international counterparts. Conversely, a positive gap typically indicates stronger buying demand from the U.S.
The recent low in the CPG occurred during a U.S. market holiday when spot Bitcoin ETFs were inactive. According to analyst Mignolet, this suggests the selling pressure did not originate from spot Bitcoin ETFs but rather from U.S. whales operating outside of traditional funds. He noted in a Monday post that "It’s one of the traditional selling patterns we’ve seen repeatedly in the past."
The timing of this dip also coincided with a broader shift in market sentiment. U.S. futures experienced a decline following President Donald Trump's escalation of tariff threats against European Union nations that resisted his plans to acquire Greenland. Concurrently, traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver saw a rally, signaling a rotation of capital away from riskier assets.
Bitcoin Technicals Raise Odds of Decline Below $90,000
Bitcoin's daily chart also exhibits a rising wedge formation, a technical pattern often indicative of weakening upside momentum during corrective rebounds. The price has been printing higher lows within narrowing trendlines, reflecting diminishing buying conviction. This pattern increases the risk of a downside breakdown if macroeconomic pressures persist and cause the CPG to move further into negative territory.
A confirmed loss of support from the wedge pattern would likely trigger a measured downside move, a common outcome in rising-wedge breakdowns. This could expose Bitcoin to accelerated selling pressure, pushing it towards previous demand zones. Based on the pattern's height and recent historical reactions, the area between $80,000 and $78,000 emerges as the primary downside target.