A sweeping trade pact between the US and China represents the most significant step toward global trade de-escalation. Among other things, China agrees to refrain from creating new export restrictions on products of strategic importance to the US, halt the export of fentanyl precursors to the US, and eliminate all contra-tariff countermeasures enacted following the brachial access rights crackdown on March 4, 2025.
“China agrees to refrain from creating new export restrictions on products of strategic importance to the US, halt the export of fentanyl precursors to the US, and eliminate all contra-tariff countermeasures enacted following the brachial access rights crackdown on March 4, 2025.”
The US president also confirmed a 10% cut in tariffs imposed on Chinese imports.
“Moreover, all investigations into Chinese maritime and logistics practices were put on hold for one year.”
According to one analyst,
“it is the most substantial relaxation available to date… This is not getting nearly enough attention.”
De-escalation of two-way trade provides comfort for sectors such as US soybeans, semiconductors due to critical minerals for EVs, and worldwide manufacturing traffic.
Market Impact on Stocks, Risk Assets, and Bitcoin Price
The trade truce should be a tailwind for global risk assets. Anything that reduces corporate earnings and supply chain flow uncertainty should help the broad basket of risk.
Remarkably, a few market commentators highlighted the possibility that the agreement would be particularly favorable for digital assets. One of the former head risks for crypto, geopolitical trader escalation, has just been massively sandwiched.
From a crypto perspective, the deal likely enhances the structural outlook. As a result of this, institutional investors lose one macro-trade headwind, global firms have increased visibility into the road ahead, and cross-border crypto businesses deal with fewer tariff frictions.
However, this relief wasn’t reflected in positioning: the crypto Fear and Greed Index rose just four points from 33 to 37.
Price Prediction Table (Bitcoin Price)
| Scenario | Target Price (BTC) |
| Conservative outlook | ~$113,000 (short-term) |
| Moderate upside | ~$120,000 by year-end |
| High-momentum breakout | ~$130,000+ if trade flows and institutional inflows accelerate |
Why the Crypto Market Remains Cautious
Why the Crypto Market Still Looks Wary Despite marking a significant pivot, the US-China deal keeps the crypto sector in exasperation over several aspects:
- Most of the trade-risk potential may already have been baked into market costs prior to the deal.
- Macro restraints, notably interest-rate rises, a strong U.S. dollar, and global liquidity restraints, continue to dominate.
- Institutional adoption, despite enhancements, still has to contend with several regulatory, operational, and custodial problems that trade relief alone cannot fix overnight.
What to Watch Next
Implementation of whether China actually lives up to its promises and whether the U.S. does indeed automatically cut the tariff rate on October 15.
On-chain and institutional metrics Exchange flows, large-wallet accumulation, and ETF/asset-manager flows will be the leading indicators from now on in our view of whether this new cycle sees expansion as opposed to a rerun of past bubbles.
Macro signals: Fed rate decisions, inflation prints, and dollar index movements all should play strongly into risk assets, including the crypto market. Crypto-specific. Remain watchful of how Bitcoin prices respond to major global events now that one large headwind has blown over.
Final Word
The US-China trade deal has a direct impact on the risk-off narrative on building crypto. While one major risk is lifted off the table, the deal could stabilize the crypto market and allow it to resume being able to lift and implies a further bull rally.
The bitcoin price opens at $111,000 and seemingly prices out much of the immediate relief. Whether the next leg of any crypto-eyed move is higher is more likely based on positioning, execution, and broad monetary conditions and institutional demand than escape announcements themselves.
Summary
The US-China trade agreement results in reduced tariffs and the elimination of major trade bottlenecks.
Restrictions on rare earth exports by China are dropped as well as a commitment to purchase vast amounts of soybeans.
Reduced tariffs continue to restore market confidence, benefiting agriculture, tech, and crypto.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin price stabilizes at about $111,000 levels, with the surrounding market remaining hopeful but cautiously so.
A global trade reprieve could also boost the crypto market. Analysts, therefore, posit that Bitcoin can top $120K, and even $130K, should institutional investment increase.
Glossary of Key Terms
1: Bitcoin Price
This is the present value of one Bitcoin in U.S. dollars. It is like the gold price or stocks, which fluctuate with increased demand, news, and global occurrences.
2: Trade Deal
This is an accord between countries on how goods and services are purchased and sold. It is a sort of contract that gets rid of obstacles like extra taxes.
3: Tariffs
Extra taxes that are added to imported goods. This is the same as paying a fee when one gets a product from a separate country.
4: Crypto Market
This is a market where people purchase, sell, or exchange their digital currencies. It is more of a digital stock market but for cryptocurrencies.
5: Institutional Inflows
These are massive investments by banks, hedge funds, or major financial corporations into assets like Bitcoin. It reflects how a major investor places money into a growing firm.
6: Risk Assets
These are portfolios that are more likely to double in value but could lose value as well, like stocks or cryptos.
7: Supply Chain:
This is a system used to create and supply commodities from raw materials to finished goods. It disrupts global trading and prices if negatively affected.
8: Rare Earths
This is a group of materials used in producing phones, batteries, and electric vehicles. Most tech and clean energy rely on these materials controlled mainly by several countries.
Frequently Asked Questions About bitcoin price
What is the US-China trade deal, and why is it important?
As described, the US-China trade deal, the reduction of trading tax, and an improvement in supply chains and trading cooperation are laying grounds for other global markets, including crypto, which is structurally contributing to investors regaining trust post an extended period of apprehension.
How has the US-China trade deal affected the Bitcoin price to date?
Around $111,000; excellent if the overall trading description settles positively following the US-China trade agreement. However, broader macroeconomic data and low-volume trading posts are still exerting their influence over trading like everyone else.
Is there a possibility that an explicit trading contract between the US and China will explicitly benefit crypto investors?
Certainly; the reduced billing in trading causes greater capital inflows and regulatory uncertainty in trading within institutional sectors that improve overall digital asset demands, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Will there be any risks if the US-China trade negotiations do not come off as required of them?
In this scenario, there are risks; non-compulsory trading causes major crashes of investable credibility while stalling full-throttle recovery possibilities, including trading in global markets and crypts.