U.S. economic data holds significant importance for cryptocurrencies, especially as many reports remain unpublished due to the government shutdown. The absence of employment reports poses challenges. While Democrats strive to leverage their position, Trump remains firm against concessions. As the shutdown persists for 28 days, we’re watching if it surpasses the 35-day record. Recently, a consumer confidence report was released, offering potential clues for cryptocurrencies.
U.S. Consumer Confidence Report
The consumer confidence index, prepared by the Conference Board, was published half an hour ago. The September figure was revised upward to 95.6. Although October saw a one-point drop to 94.6, it still exceeded expectations. The initial expectation was 93.75, and the September figure before revision was 94.2.
The index reflecting consumers’ short-term expectations concerning income, jobs, and labor market conditions fell by 2.9 points to 71.5. Since February, this figure has been below 80, indicating a sign of recession.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at the Conference Board Global Indicators, commented: “Consumer confidence remained flat in October, showing only a slight decline from the upwardly revised September level.
Changes in individual sub-components were limited, largely offsetting each other. Following a drop in September, the Present Situation Index regained some strength. Views on current business conditions slightly improved, and for the first time since December 2024, assessments of current job opportunities have improved. However, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. While consumers became slightly more pessimistic about future job opportunities and business conditions, their optimism regarding future income declined slightly.”
Impact on Cryptocurrencies
If the improving employment outlook reflects in unemployment reports, it may hinder interest rate cuts. Still, the first recovery since December from recession is not entirely bad for crypto. The 12-month inflation expectation increased (%0.1 to %5.9) from September, which hawkish Fed members might note. This is unfavorable for crypto.