Van de Poppe’s Bullish Bitcoin Outlook Sideways Grind Sets Stage for $120K Breakout

Bitcoin's Consolidation and Impending Volatility

Bitcoin's six-month consolidation between $100K and $120K signals an impending volatile breakout, but patience is key until CPI and FOMC data arrive. At $100K with 4–4.5% rates, BTC looks undervalued compared to its $69K peak in 2021 at 0% rates—lower yields could spark a major upside impulse. A break above $120K marks a critical bullish threshold, with van de Poppe viewing the current cycle as far from exhausted.

In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, few voices carry the weight of Michael van de Poppe, the renowned analyst behind @CryptoMichNL. His latest X post offers a measured yet optimistic take on Bitcoin’s current trajectory, cutting through the noise with a blend of macro awareness and cycle savvy. As BTC hovers in a stubborn $100K–$120K range—now a familiar sight after nearly six months of consolidation—van de Poppe sees this as mere prelude to a “big volatile move” on the horizon. But when? And at what cost?

Macroeconomic Catalysts and Policy-Driven Surge

The analyst’s candor is refreshing: “I don’t know.” Yet, he tempers uncertainty with a clear bias against premature euphoria. Bitcoin’s choppy waters, he argues, will persist until pivotal macroeconomic catalysts emerge—namely, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. These aren’t just calendar checkboxes; they’re inflection points for monetary policy recalibration. With rate cuts on the table and an adjusted business cycle gaining traction, van de Poppe envisions a policy-driven surge kicking off later this quarter. “From that perspective, the big surge should be starting up,” he notes, urging traders to zoom out beyond the daily wiggles.

Valuation and Interest Rate Dynamics

A standout element of his analysis is the reframing of Bitcoin’s valuation. Is BTC “expensive” at $100K? Not in van de Poppe’s book. He draws a sharp contrast to 2021, when the asset peaked at $69K amid near-zero interest rates. Today, with U.S. rates lingering at 4–4.5%, the environment is far more normalized—yet Bitcoin hasn’t fully capitalized. “If rates come down → Bitcoin is yet to make the big impulse move upwards,” he posits. This isn’t hyperbole; it’s a nod to the asset’s historical sensitivity to liquidity flows. Lower rates could unleash pent-up demand, propelling BTC toward uncharted highs without the froth of past bull runs.

Cycle Optimism and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, van de Poppe remains cycle-optimistic. “This cycle is far from over,” he asserts, pinpointing a break above $120K as the “crucial level” that could ignite sustained strength. In a market prone to FOMO-fueled spikes, his call for patience amid building macro tailwinds feels like a masterclass in disciplined trading. As institutional adoption deepens and ETF inflows stabilize, Bitcoin’s sideways grind may indeed be the calm before a policy-fueled storm. For now, eyes on CPI and the Fed—because in crypto, the real action starts when the suits in Washington start cutting.