While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may not play out exactly as it has in the past, that doesn’t mean the concept is entirely dead, according to a crypto executive.
“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” crypto exchange Gemini’s head of APAC region, Saad Ahmed, told Cointelegraph during a sit-down interview at Token2049 in Singapore.
“It ultimately stems from people get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium,” Ahmed said.
However, Ahmed said growing institutional involvement in the crypto industry could help the market absorb some of the volatility. “You’ll see kind of some of the volatility, kind of a flag off, but you’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by, you know, by human emotion,” Ahmed said.
The debate over whether the four-year cycle is relevant to Bitcoin has been ongoing within the crypto industry recently.
On Aug. 21, crypto analytics company Glassnode said Bitcoin’s recent price action may still be tracking its historic four-year halving cycle.
October may mark Bitcoin’s cycle peak if patterns repeat
However, the deadline for Bitcoin’s cycle peak may fall this month if past patterns hold, according to crypto analyst Rekt Capital.
In July, he said that if the cycle mirrors 2020, the market would likely peak in October, approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt said.
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It comes as Bitcoin (BTC) surged 11.5% over the past week, climbing to $123,850, just short of its $124,100 all‑time high set on Aug. 14, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan recently said he doesn’t expect Bitcoin’s price to follow the cycle as it has in the past.
“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said on July 26. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan added.
Oct. 1 marked the beginning of Q4, historically Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, with an average return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass.
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