Vitalik Buterin Calls for Trustless On-Chain Gas Futures Market as Ethereum Eyes Fee Stability

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has proposed the creation of a trustless, on-chain gas futures market to address user concerns about the stability of Ethereum transaction fees. His comments come in response to growing uncertainty among users who worry that the currently low fees on Ethereum may not remain stable over the next two years. Buterin believes a fully on-chain futures system could provide clarity, establish market expectations, and offer practical hedging tools for millions of ETH users.

A Market to Predict and Lock Future Gas Fees

Buterin explained that many individuals are questioning whether today’s low fees will persist as Ethereum continues to evolve. They often reference upcoming upgrades such as increased gas limits, improvements from EIP-4844, and future efficiencies from ZK-EVMs, yet remain uncertain about the long-term stability these changes will guarantee.

He argues that a trustless gas futures market could resolve this uncertainty by providing users with a clear signal of expected future fees. This would function similarly to a prediction market built directly on Ethereum’s BASEFEE. With such a system in place, users would be able to hedge against rising gas costs and even prepay for specific amounts of gas within a chosen time period.

Early Experiments Are Already Emerging

According to Buterin, at least one project is already exploring this concept. He specifically mentioned Oiler Network, which is developing “Pitch Lake,” a work-in-progress DeFi vault system designed to allow users to trade Ethereum mainnet basefee through a TWAP-based settlement mechanism. This system utilizes StarkNet STARK proofs to calculate monthly basefee averages and provides verified block-header access for settlement.

Buterin expressed hope for growth in this category, noting that increased experimentation would accelerate the maturation of the ecosystem.

Core Debate: The Market Lacks a Natural Short Side

Ethereum researcher Hasu joined the discussion, highlighting a significant structural challenge. He argued that the market currently lacks a natural short side. Many participants are motivated to hedge against rising gas costs, effectively making them short on gas. However, very few individuals are interested in being “long gas,” which diminishes the incentive for meaningful market liquidity.

Hasu believes this imbalance could restrict trading activity and prevent the market from reaching a substantial scale.

In response, Buterin posed the question of whether the protocol itself should assume the role of the short side. He floated the idea of an on-chain auction system for BASEFEE claiming rights, potentially for fixed quantities such as 1 million gas per block. This approach could introduce the necessary counterparty, providing the futures market with a foundation for sustained liquidity.

Rising Demand for Predictability as Ethereum Evolves

Buterin’s proposal emerges as Ethereum continues its development trajectory, with an increasing number of users seeking certainty regarding future transaction costs. Despite the current low fees, the ecosystem has experienced enough volatility to maintain a sense of caution among users regarding the medium-term outlook. A trustless futures market could offer the predictability that many developers and institutions require, particularly as Ethereum expands in scale and use cases.

Buterin emphasized that the objective is not speculation, but rather to provide transparent expectations and hedging tools that align with the network’s long-term economic design.

He concluded that it would be beneficial for the ecosystem to witness more experimentation, increased liquidity, and more mature markets surrounding gas pricing. For the time being, early builders like Oiler Network are making initial strides, but broader innovation will ultimately determine whether Ethereum achieves the predictable fee environment that many users have been anticipating.