Key Takeaways
- •Alden says Bitcoin’s downturn doesn’t show the signs of a classic end-of-cycle crash.
- •She believes macro factors now drive Bitcoin more than the halving cycle.
- •Her outlook points to a slow climb, not a collapse, with $100K expected again in 2026.
- •She sees nothing in today’s sentiment that suggests the bull cycle has reached its natural endpoint.
Halving Narrative Losing Influence
During a conversation on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden said Bitcoin’s behavior is being shaped less by the halving cycle and more by broader global trends — liquidity flows, risk appetite, and institutional adoption. Because of that shift, she believes market cycles no longer follow a predictable four-year pattern and may stretch longer than traders expect.
Opposing Voices See a Storm Forming
Her stance conflicts sharply with more pessimistic projections. Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki has warned that Bitcoin could retrace by 65–70% over the next 24 months, arguing that the current decline marks the early phase of a deeper structural correction rather than a temporary pause in momentum. The result is a sharply divided market where neither side has enough evidence to claim victory.
After the Peak: A Reality Check
Bitcoin’s volatility continues to reflect the uncertainty. The asset climbed to a record $125,100 on October 5, then slid to $80,700 before rebounding modestly to around $85,710. Performance over the past 30 days shows a drop of more than 22%, disappointing traders who expected explosive fourth-quarter strength and even new highs — while outspoken bulls like Arthur Hayes predicted a path toward $250,000.
It’s Not Supposed to Be Perfect
Alden pushed back against both maximal optimism and catastrophic fear, stressing that markets rarely deliver the extreme outcomes humans imagine. In her view, the biggest misconception among traders is the belief that parabolic bull markets are guaranteed. She warned that entitlement — not volatility — is one of the biggest psychological risks in investing.
Slow Recovery, Not Instant Fireworks
Her long-term outlook remains constructive but cautious. Alden anticipates Bitcoin revisiting the $100,000 region in 2026, and believes new all-time highs could appear either that year or in 2027 depending on the global macro landscape. Her thesis is that the next phase of growth is more likely to resemble a steady climb than a sudden moonshot.