- •Bitcoin’s MVRV shows a consistent year-end surge
- •Q4 has historically been bullish for BTC prices
- •Investors expect another rally as 2025 nears end
Every year, as October rolls around, something remarkable happens in the crypto world—Bitcoin begins to heat up. A consistent pattern has emerged over the past decade: Bitcoin tends to rally towards the end of the year. This phenomenon is backed by data, particularly the MVRV ratio, which reflects the relationship between market value and realized value.
From 2016 through 2025, the MVRV remains steady around 1.8 for most of the year. However, come October, it begins to rise, pushing past 1.9 and even nearing 2.0 by December. This ratio suggests that investors start valuing Bitcoin significantly higher than the average price at which they bought it—typically a signal of growing market optimism.
What Is the MVRV Ratio and Why It Matters
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is a metric that shows whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued compared to the average cost basis of all coins in circulation. An MVRV ratio below 1 often signals undervaluation, while levels above 1.5 suggest growing investor confidence and possible price rallies.
Historically, when MVRV approaches or exceeds 2.0, it reflects periods of extreme bullish sentiment and sharp price increases. The fact that this rise consistently occurs in Q4 indicates seasonal behavior among investors—possibly due to institutional inflows, tax planning, or general market psychology near the year’s end.
What to Expect in Late 2025
Given the consistency of this pattern, many analysts are now expecting a similar year-end rally in 2025. With MVRV already trending upward as October begins, traders and investors are watching closely for a breakout move. If history repeats, Bitcoin could once again deliver double-digit gains before the year closes.
Understanding this seasonal pattern doesn’t guarantee profits, but it equips investors with better timing for their strategies. With sentiment building and MVRV signaling historical bullish trends, the “calm before the moon” might just be setting in again.