Strong Start for Solana ETFs
The REX Osprey Solana ETF stands apart from other spot crypto funds. It was approved under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which provides stricter investor protection. Other crypto ETFs are typically registered under older securities laws.
JPMorgan compared Solana’s early performance with Ethereum’s ETF inflows. By applying a one‑seventh ratio to Ethereum’s first‑year total of $9.6 billion, they estimated Solana ETFs could reach $1.5 billion in the same period.
JPMorgan’s Outlook and Warnings
JPMorgan’s analysts warned that actual inflows could be lower. They pointed to weaker investor sentiment around Solana compared to Ethereum. The decline in on‑chain activity and the dominance of memecoin trading have also hurt Solana’s image as a top smart contract platform.
Active wallet addresses on the Solana network have dropped since November 2024. These factors may weigh on early ETF inflows despite strong institutional interest.
Market Signals and Pricing Trends
The bank noted that the market already reflects ETF approval expectations. The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) premium has fallen from 750 % last year to near zero. That decline mirrors Bitcoin and Ethereum trends before their ETF launches.
It suggests investors expect Solana ETFs to receive approval soon. Still, JPMorgan said inflows will depend on broader demand and long‑term investor confidence in Solana’s ecosystem.
Rising Competition in Crypto ETFs
JPMorgan warned that Solana ETFs face competition from several directions. Diversified crypto index funds such as the S&P Dow Jones Digital Markets 50 may attract more cautious investors.
Corporate funds are also leaning toward mixed‑asset products rather than single‑token investments. The analysts added that many investors are experiencing fatigue after a wave of ETF launches, which could slow early inflows to Solana ETFs.
Regulatory Path and SEC Decision
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing sixteen spot crypto ETF applications, including those tied to Solana. The agency has simplified the approval process through new generic listing standards, eliminating token‑specific filings.
JPMorgan believes this change will help Solana ETFs gain approval faster. Analysts noted that Solana’s existing futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) strengthen its case, as the SEC often favors assets with established futures markets.
Analyst Forecasts and Market Confidence
JPMorgan’s current forecast contrasts with an earlier report by Kenneth B. Worthington, another JPMorgan analyst. He had predicted Solana ETFs could attract between $2.7 billion and $5.2 billion in the first 12 months.
Despite differing estimates, both forecasts suggest strong institutional interest in Solana. Outside the bank, optimism is even stronger. Polymarket traders put the odds of approval above 99 %, while Bloomberg analysts see near‑certain approval due to regulatory clarity.
Solana Price and Market Activity
Although the Solana ETFs are being optimistic, the Solana token (SOL) has been sliding a notch. The new coin is below its whole value of $220.32 indicating that 0.63 % down has been lost over the last 24 hours and 4.59 % over the last 7 days.
| Month | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | $ 221.06 | $ 225.26 | $ 230.82 | 5.13 % |
| Nov 2025 | $ 232.22 | $ 238.82 | $ 244.86 | 11.53 % |
| Dec 2025 | $ 241.82 | $ 245.99 | $ 247.78 | 12.86 % |
Analysts pointed to the short‑term trough as indicators of normal market volatility. They hope that getting ETF approval will increase the liquidity and number of investors of Solana in the long‑term, as was the case with the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, to get ETF approval.
Conclusion
The approval of Solana ETFs would mark a major milestone for the crypto industry. JPMorgan’s $1.5 billion forecast highlights both the growing appeal and the challenges ahead for Solana.
With regulation becoming clearer and institutional participation increasing, Solana is well‑positioned to benefit from the next phase of crypto investment. As 2025 approaches, all eyes are on the SEC’s final decision.
Summary
JPMorgan projects that Solana ETFs could attract $1.5 billion in first‑year inflows, driven by strong institutional demand and early success of the REX Osprey Solana ETF. The forecast reflects optimism surrounding Solana’s growing DeFi ecosystem and improving regulation.
However, analysts warned that weaker investor sentiment, declining on‑chain activity, and ETF competition could limit growth. With the SEC expected to approve several spot Solana ETFs soon, the decision could mark a major milestone for institutional crypto investment.
Appendix: Glossary of Key Terms
Solana ETFs – Exchange‑traded funds that track Solana’s performance, allowing investors to gain exposure without directly holding SOL tokens.
JPMorgan – A global investment bank providing analysis and forecasts on digital asset markets, including Solana ETFs.
REX Osprey Solana ETF – The first Solana‑based ETF launched under the Investment Company Act of 1940.
DeFi (Decentralized Finance) – Financial services built on blockchain, enabling peer‑to‑peer transactions without intermediaries.
CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) – A major derivatives exchange offering Solana futures contracts, signaling institutional interest.
SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) – The U.S. regulator responsible for approving or rejecting spot crypto ETF applications.
Frequently Asked Questions About Solana ETFs
1‑ What are Solana ETFs?
Solana ETFs are funds that allow investors to gain exposure to Solana’s token (SOL) without directly buying or storing it.
2‑ Why does JPMorgan predict $1.5 billion inflows?
The estimate is based on Ethereum’s ETF inflows and Solana’s DeFi size compared to Ethereum’s ecosystem.
3‑ When will the SEC decide on Solana ETFs?
The SEC is expected to announce its decisions on Solana‑related ETF filings by mid‑October.
4‑ What could limit Solana ETF growth?
Competition from other crypto ETFs, investor fatigue, and reduced on‑chain activity may slow inflows.