- •Bitcoin’s 50-week EMA has historically supported price and triggered strong vertical rallies after each successful retest across cycles.
- •The current retest near $98,000 mirrors past reactions that led to bullish continuation, with traders watching for a similar outcome.
- •Weekly closes above the 50 EMA could drive a new Q4 rally, while sustained breakdowns may shift Bitcoin into deeper retracement levels.
Bitcoin is once again at a critical technical juncture as it retests the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This level has historically determined the direction of major market moves. As Q4 2025 unfolds, the 50 EMA continues to act as a clear dividing line between bullish continuation and bearish breakdown.
50 EMA as Dynamic Market Structure Support
The yellow line on the weekly Bitcoin chart, known as the 50-week EMA, has consistently supported price during major market cycles. According to MerlijnTrader, this moving average is Bitcoin’s “cheat code,” with every bounce from it leading to a vertical rally.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin bounced from this line in September 2023, July 2024, and March 2025. Each of those retests was followed by strong upward moves, suggesting that the line has been respected as a foundational level of bullish structure. These historical reactions have added credibility to its role as a long-term trend filter.
As of now, the price of Bitcoin hovers near $98,000, retesting the 50 EMA once again. Market participants are closely watching this level, as the next move could shape the remainder of the year.
Key Moments That Reinforce the 50 EMA's Relevance
The previous retests each played out during different phases of the market. In September 2023, the 50 EMA acted as a lifeline, with the price recovering and continuing into a new uptrend. The same occurred in July 2024, with the EMA providing support during a consolidation before another upward leg.
In March 2025, the market tested this level again. Despite broader volatility, the bounce confirmed the trend's strength and allowed Bitcoin to reclaim previous highs. In each case, the 50 EMA didn’t just act as support—it acted as a launchpad.
Now, with macroeconomic uncertainty increasing and volatility tightening, the market faces a similar test. Traders are not only looking for support but for confirmation that the trend is still intact.
Q4 Outlook Hinges on Weekly Closes
Merlijn’s tweet summarizes the gravity of the current market setup: “Every bounce is a vertical rally. Every break is capitulation. Q4 survival or destruction depends on this line.” This underscores the risk‑reward asymmetry at play.
If Bitcoin maintains support and closes above the 50 EMA over the next few weeks, bulls may look for a fresh leg higher into Q1 2026. On the other hand, a decisive close below the line could open the door to corrections toward $70,000 or lower.
The 50 EMA has filtered out noise, FUD, and temporary sell‑offs, maintaining its position as a long‑term guidepost. Now, as the market stands at this level again, the next few candles could define whether Bitcoin continues its bull cycle or faces deeper retracement.