The cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket has updated its probability assessment for Bitcoin (BTC) reaching the $100,000 mark again before the end of the current year. The platform now places this probability at 50%.
In addition to this key milestone, other scenarios analyzed on Polymarket indicate a 18% probability of BTC exceeding $110,000. Conversely, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 again before year-end is estimated at 37%.
Current Market Performance and Volatility
While the cryptocurrency market's attention is currently focused on a potential renewed upward trend, it is important to note that volatility remains a significant factor. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has seen a gain of 1.69%, bringing its price to $91,431. On a weekly basis, the cryptocurrency has appreciated by 5.11%.
Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Optimism
Global macroeconomic dynamics are playing a substantial role in shaping these optimistic price expectations for Bitcoin. Luca Paolini, a strategist at Pictet Asset Management, has shared his firm's outlook, predicting that the US dollar is likely to begin weakening again in the coming year. According to Paolini, an anticipated slowdown in the US economy is expected to create favorable conditions for the Federal Reserve to implement further interest rate cuts. This would, in turn, lead to a rapid reduction in the dollar's interest rate advantage.
Paolini elaborated on this outlook, stating, "We expect the US economy to weaken somewhat, which will gradually ease inflationary pressures." He further argued that, in contrast to the US, economic growth in Europe and Japan is projected to start recovering. Paolini also pointed out that the current valuation of the US dollar remains relatively high.