Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a notable price drop, falling to $81,000, which understandably caused concern among investors. However, the BTC price demonstrated resilience, rebounding today and climbing back to $92,000. Amidst ongoing market volatility, prediction platforms are actively updating their assessments regarding Bitcoin's potential to reach $100,000 before the close of the year in December.
Investor Sentiment on Bitcoin's Price Trajectory
Data from prediction markets indicates a divided investor outlook on whether the six-figure price level will be retested this month. Specifically, contracts related to the question "What price will Bitcoin reach in 2025?" show a 49% probability that Bitcoin will hit the $100,000 threshold.
In addition to the $100,000 mark, other price scenarios are being considered, with optimistic expectations being priced in at very low probabilities:
- •$105,000: 30 percent probability
- •$110,000: 18 percent probability
- •$115,000: 10 percent probability
- •$120,000: 6 percent probability
- •$130,000: 4 percent probability
- •$140,000–$170,000 band: Marginal possibilities exist in the 1–2 percent range.
Risk Aversion and Short-Term Price Predictions
Concurrently, signs of risk aversion are clearly visible within the prediction markets. There is an 80 percent chance that Bitcoin will reach $95,000 by the end of the year. Conversely, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $80,000 is currently priced at 28 percent.