October has long carried a reputation for unsettling cryptocurrency markets. For XRP investors, the month brings an extra layer of intrigue. Historical performance suggests caution, yet 2025 arrives with fresh catalysts that could overturn old patterns.
With major regulatory decisions approaching and market dynamics shifting, traders are asking whether this October might break from the past.
Historical Performance: A Cautionary Tale
Coin Bureau highlights that XRP has ended October in negative territory in seven of the past twelve years, averaging a monthly decline of about 4.58%. This tendency toward weakness has made October a challenging period for holders looking for upside momentum.
Broader market data from platforms such as CryptoRank supports this picture, noting that while the fourth quarter often rewards XRP with strong gains overall, October itself frequently starts slowly before any late‑year rally develops.
WILL XRP RALLY THIS OCTOBER?$XRP has finished red in 7 of the last 12 Octobers with an average drop of −4.58%. But with ETF approvals looming, bulls say this time could be different. pic.twitter.com/giLscnPQPv
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) September 28, 2025
Regulatory Catalysts and ETF Momentum
This year, however, the environment is not business as usual. Regulatory developments in the United States are creating the possibility of a breakthrough for cryptocurrency exchange‑traded funds (ETFs).
Updated listing standards and an accelerated review process have heightened expectations that additional spot crypto ETFs—including those beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum—could win approval in the coming weeks.
If XRP becomes part of that conversation, the impact on demand could be dramatic. A green light for any XRP‑related ETF would open new channels for institutional investment, potentially delivering an influx of liquidity and legitimacy unmatched in the asset’s history.
Market Liquidity and On‑Chain Signals
Alongside regulatory momentum, on‑chain data reveals a tightening supply of XRP on major exchanges. Analysts monitoring cold‑wallet balances have observed substantial outflows from platforms such as Coinbase throughout the third quarter of 2025.
We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1
— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
This decline in exchange reserves reduces the amount of readily available XRP, creating the conditions for a supply squeeze if buying pressure rises suddenly. Historically, thin exchange inventories have amplified price spikes when demand surges.
Scenarios for October
Combining these elements produces two competing narratives. Should ETF approvals or strong institutional commitments materialize in October, XRP could stage a sharp rally that defies its typical seasonal weakness. Reduced exchange liquidity could magnify any upward move.
Conversely, if regulatory decisions are delayed or broader macroeconomic headwinds emerge, XRP may follow its historical trend and finish the month with modest losses. The pattern of previous Octobers shows that, absent strong catalysts, seasonal weakness can reassert itself.
The Bottom Line
Coin Bureau’s observation about XRP’s October record provides a valuable guidepost, but history alone does not dictate the future. The current mix of regulatory opportunity and tightening liquidity creates a unique backdrop that could see XRP break from its usual pattern.
Traders should remain alert to official ETF announcements and keep risk management strategies in place, as October’s outcome will likely hinge on concrete events rather than seasonal statistics.
Whether the month brings another dip or a breakout rally, one thing is clear: this October offers a pivotal moment for XRP, and careful planning will be essential for anyone hoping to capitalize on the moves ahead.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in‑depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.